General Discussion

andym

(6,066 posts)

35. Outside of Latinos and first-time voters, your summaries are incorrect for black men and youth using NBC exit polls

Thu Nov 7, 2024, 04:26 PM

Nov 2024

You should include actual data in your OP.

Using this data source:
https://www.nbcwashington.com/decision-2024/2024-voter-turnout-election-demographics-trump-harris/3762138/
Did you use a different one?

Black Men 19% for Trump 2020, 20% 2024 -- 1% change is not significant at ALL

Youth 18-29: 36% for Trump in 2020, 42% in 2024--- 6% change is somewhat significant, but most 55% still voted Harris (down from 60%). First time voters may actually overlap with this category.

You are correct with these groups:

First-time voters:
Trump went from 32 in 2020 to 54% in 2024 -- a gain of 22% VERY significant. The question is why? Youth or Elon Musk's outreach?

Hispanics:
Trump went from 32 to 45%-- a gain of 13% also VERY significant.Why?

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

2 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

BeerBarrelPolka palustris

81 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

We lost (some of) the black men, the Hispanics, the youth and the first time voters. [View all] WarGamer Nov 2024 OP

Uh oh.... Libosaurus Nov 2024 #1

uh huh Skittles Nov 2024 #6

So what did Fetterman say? Jersey Devil Nov 2024 #2

I think you're missing the big picture. TwilightZone Nov 2024 #3

Men under 30s right, not women? AkFemDem Nov 2024 #4

trump improved with 18-29 by 6% from 2020 WarGamer Nov 2024 #5

Im seeing different data AkFemDem Nov 2024 #12

You're right... I probably read the Trump +6% stat as the line WarGamer Nov 2024 #15

Wapo has 18-29 54/43 for Harris. TwilightZone Nov 2024 #14

I corrected it... I'd seen the Trump gained stats and thought it was for 2024.. not improvement rom 2020 WarGamer Nov 2024 #19

That's a drop compared to 2020. LisaL Nov 2024 #50

Good comparison 2020/2024 AkFemDem Nov 2024 #9

53% of white women voted for Trump. TwilightZone Nov 2024 #13

Well of course 53% of white women should have voted for Harris but.... AkFemDem Nov 2024 #23

If only women were allowed to vote, Kamala would have won. LisaL Nov 2024 #49

There are more White women than any other group other than White men. Yavin4 Nov 2024 #70

Nope, no deal. AkFemDem Nov 2024 #75

The stats AkFemDem Nov 2024 #76

Young women too TheProle Nov 2024 #18

College Campuses Homoudont Nov 2024 #53

"Everything we did was totally fine. No notes!" Sympthsical Nov 2024 #7

I'll take a 21st Century Bill Clinton. WarGamer Nov 2024 #11

100% agree TwilightZone Nov 2024 #17

Yep. orange jar Nov 2024 #22

Biden did focus on pocketbook issues and his poll numbers were radius777 Nov 2024 #69

But Trump was sending out such lovely messages to these same people Redleg Nov 2024 #28

Some people sounded the warnings of what was happening sarisataka Nov 2024 #32

Recommended. H2O Man Nov 2024 #8

Repugs have had 4 years to plot onetexan Nov 2024 #10

She had a disadvantage buuuuuuuut... AkFemDem Nov 2024 #16

Harris did not pick up an already planned campaign. yardwork Nov 2024 #25

Harris working hard isn't in doubt. Her short campaign is also not why she lost. AkFemDem Nov 2024 #26

But she never went through primary. LisaL Nov 2024 #47

Were are recently 0 for 2 with non-incumbent candidates that were not properly primaried. Jk23 Nov 2024 #51

Remember Trump and "Moses" had a secret plan? Autumn Nov 2024 #55

This is what we're seeing as the biggest problem Jason1961 Nov 2024 #20

My FIL, a brilliant anesthesiologist and an intellectual, told his grandson my hubby that 98% of the population are onetexan Nov 2024 #41

Dude, the Working class male broke for Nixon in 1968. Tommymac Nov 2024 #42

You can't tell people oh you're duped you're just stupid Jk23 Nov 2024 #74

It's a little too early to analyze data, which is still coming in. yardwork Nov 2024 #21

Its$The$Economy$Every$Time AkFemDem Nov 2024 #29

I guess he did moose65 Nov 2024 #81

Agreed. We're just swatting at flies right now. Redleg Nov 2024 #30

That is certainly true. yardwork Nov 2024 #37

Good observations Redleg Nov 2024 #46

Months ago we ignored/denied reports of demographic shifts sarisataka Nov 2024 #24

Black support including black men seems to have held standingtall Nov 2024 #27

this is what I have WarGamer Nov 2024 #31

I am not seeing those figures for Black voters. yardwork Nov 2024 #38

most demographics tilted right... and yes too early to precisely make the post-mortem. WarGamer Nov 2024 #39

Any increases in Black voters for Trumps appear to be only because of Black men. LisaL Nov 2024 #48

BM overwhelmingly supported her Dem4life1234 Nov 2024 #33

If White women voted in the same percentages as Black men AS THEY SHOULD HAVE... Yavin4 Nov 2024 #71

misinformation and conspiracy theory influencers in foreign languages dsp3000 Nov 2024 #34

Outside of Latinos and first-time voters, your summaries are incorrect for black men and youth using NBC exit polls andym Nov 2024 #35

A 5% gain here, another there, can make or break LeftInTX Nov 2024 #36

Those two demographics jump out at me, too. yardwork Nov 2024 #40

The irony here is, most of these immigrants (Latinos, Asians, etc.) jrthin Nov 2024 #56

Maybe we begin publicly shaming racists and bigots. yardwork Nov 2024 #57

Shaming people is the wrong direction Elmotime Nov 2024 #58

Who said anything about yelling insults? yardwork Nov 2024 #59

Family on the right Elmotime Nov 2024 #61

I'm not making myself clear. yardwork Nov 2024 #63

"Maybe we begin publicly shaming racists and bigots." MichMan Nov 2024 #78

Yes. yardwork Nov 2024 #79

Certainly not all Asians are racist. Half my family is Asian and not all jrthin Nov 2024 #62

Thank you. yardwork Nov 2024 #64

Your impression is correct. And, jrthin Nov 2024 #66

It's not going to be easy to speak up, but it's our only hope. yardwork Nov 2024 #67

The majority were born here and did not leave other countries. MichMan Nov 2024 #80

Message auto-removed Name removed Nov 2024 #43

Except that never happened. Why flood this place with RW disinfo? FSogol Nov 2024 #44

Message auto-removed Name removed Nov 2024 #45

It's the economy. PennRalphie Nov 2024 #52

"I am your retribution" Fish700 Nov 2024 #54

I think there's a lot of truth in this. yardwork Nov 2024 #65

Hard Truths Aepps22 Nov 2024 #60

It's the "first time voters" that blows my mind... Jack Valentino Nov 2024 #68

They think their lives suck and Trump can make them better. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2024 #72

It's the White vote. Cross tabs analysis are coping mechanisms to escape accountability. Yavin4 Nov 2024 #73

This. yardwork Nov 2024 #77