So Trump won every swing state?

[andym]

138. Using 538, my original point stands: "the national polling at the end showed an even race with Trump even marginally

ahead in some, his chances were good:" If I want to be even more accurate using 538, I should have said an almost even race.

Here are the polls being aggregated by 538 over the last 4 days before the election:

copy/pasted from 538:
Nov. 3-4 2,703 LV AtlasIntel Harris 49% 50% Trump Trump +1
Nov. 3-4 2,703 LV AtlasIntel Harris 48% 49% Trump More Trump +1
Nov. 2-3 1,003 LV Research Co. Harris 48% 46% Trump Harris +2
Nov. 2-3 1,005 LV John Zogby Strategies Harris 49% 46% Trump Harris +2
Nov. 2-3 1,005 LV John Zogby Strategies Harris 48% 45% Trump More Harris +4
Nov. 1-3 1,411 LV TIPP Insights Harris 48% 49% Trump More Trump +1
Nov. 1-3 1,411 LV TIPP Insights Harris 48% 48% Trump Even
Nov. 1-3 1,115 RV Patriot Polling Harris 49% 48% Trump Harris +1
Nov. 1-3 973 LV Ipsos Reuters Harris 50% 48% Trump Harris +2
Nov. 1-3 1,242 A Ipsos Reuters Harris 41% 39% Trump Harris +2
[note that the +/- differentials don't always agree with the results one gets if subtracting Trump from Harris or vice versa in their data]

Note that Trump was indeed leading in some, Harris in others and some were tied, but all were close, which was my point.

It's true that Harris always held a net lead on 538, but it was down to 1.0% on Nov 2, 0.9% on Nov 3, and 1.3% on Nov 4. She definitely did not poll the 3-4% nationally thought to be needed to win, which was my main point.