I know many, especially here... are upset about the situation in Ukraine.

[Emrys]

97. From what I can see, Putin was a victim of the regime he'd built around him

Dissent wan't tolerated, bad news wasn't welcome, theft of money and resources was rife, with accompanying cronyism and incompetence, and Russian intelligence about Ukraine - a country they'd been trying to soften up for potential takeover, if not invasion, for years - was very wide of the mark.

They thought they had enough traitorous placemen and tacit support among the Ukrainian population that they'd be, if not initially welcomed with open arms, met with only token pockets of resistance they could soon shock and awe out of existence as an example to any others who might resist (see Bucha). Infamously, their advance troops heading for Kyiv were reported to have packed their best duds and booked tables in swanky restaurants for celebratory meals/pissups after they waltzed or goosestepped in.

I vividly remember the very weird televised spectacle of Putin bullying his intelligence chief and basically intimidating his chiefs of staff into supporting his invasion of Ukraine just before it happened. It was like a scene from Death of Stalin (only with at least one less death than I'd have liked):

I don't know what its televising was supposed to prove or achieve, unless it was just more evidence of Putin's hubris - "Here I am lording it over my subordinates, and I'm going to do this thing and there's nothing anyone can do to stop it." (That sounds almost Trumpian.)

As we all know, it didn't work out like that. A key factor was that Zelensky and his cabinet didn't flee into exile, as was almost universally expected. If they had, I think someone else within Ukraine would have stepped forward as a leader, but the resistance might have been a lot weaker and the situation might have been portrayed by the world media as just another boring old coup in Eastern Europe as Putin installed yet another interim leader before the inevitable election that would elect Ukraine's next Russia-friendly president with 99% of the vote whose name newscasters would struggle to pronounce.

Mythology about the readiness and fitness, let alone functionality, of the Russian armed forces personnel, let alone their equipment, had been subject to some skepticism in academic quarters for quite some time (I remember copy-editing one book about the subject a few years earlier). It was known that there were efforts to modernize and reform them, but alcoholism and systematic hazing were seen as rife, and the command structure was very archaic. It had been assumed these efforts had met with some success. I don't think anyone was expecting their armed services to be such a godawful mess, probably largely because of entrenched graft, which Putin usually turned a blind eye to if it benefited his cronies and didn't go too far. It looks like it did go too far.

Ukraine also had some luck. The massive tailback that stalled the advance on Kyiv - the result of poor storage and maintenance of vehicles, if Trent Telenko's to be believed - was a turning point after the early atrocities of Bucha fired up the Ukrainian population and the watching world. As well as some superb fighters and intelligence staff, Ukraine also had some great communicators on its side, not least Zelensky, and the effects of its social media presence should never be underestimated.

Through all that, Putin was flatfooted, and never seemed to recover fully from the initial shock of failure and a degree of humiliation.