The Blue State Exodus Should Scare Democrats: The electoral consequences could be massive. [View all]

[Celerity]

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-blue-state-exodus-should-scare

In 2021, California’s population declined for the first time since earning statehood in 1850. In 2022, it declined again. And then again in 2023. For a state historically defined by limitless opportunity and an ever-growing population, three straight years of decline delivered a cold dose of reality: things weren't working. The Golden State, of course, is not alone. Since Covid, the biggest blue states have dramatically lagged behind the biggest Republican states in population growth. Between 2020 and 2024, California, New York, and Illinois each lost more than 100,000 thousand residents. Florida and Texas, meanwhile, both gained around 2 million residents. The disparity is shocking.

It is tempting to chalk up the unprecedented decline to Covid. Now that the pandemic has faded, numbers will even out, some might argue. Nothing more than a blip. But the most recent figures confirm that the reasons behind the blue-state population decline run much deeper than Covid. Even though case counts are a thing of the past, populous red states continue to lap their blue counterparts. Between July 2023 and July 2024, Florida and Texas gained more than 1 million residents combined. Illinois, New York, and California barely broke 400,000 cumulatively.

Though certainly exacerbated by the virus, policy failures are ultimately at fault. Disastrous housing shortages, needlessly burdensome environmental regulations, the mind-boggling mess that is California’s high-speed rail project. The examples go on and on. Thankfully, left-of-center intellectuals are coming to terms with a much-needed course correction (though some have been there for a while). Marc Dunkelman’s Why Nothing Works and Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson’s Abundance both attempt to address the problem—and a broader “Abundance Agenda” seems to slowly be gaining purchase with some policymakers.

But most elected Democrats remain oblivious or even contemptuous of the reforms needed to right the ship. If the policy benefits are an insufficient carrot, then perhaps the frightening electoral costs will jolt Democrats into action: if blue-state populations don’t rebound soon, the 2030s presidential map could start to look very dicey. Estimates from the American Redistricting Project predict that California is on track to lose three House seats—and three electoral votes—after 2030’s reapportionment. New York could drop 2 seats. Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Illinois all might lose a seat. Meanwhile, Texas and Florida are each projected to gain a whopping 4 seats. Idaho and Utah, too, will tack on an additional seat.

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