Interest rates held steady for a third straight meeting just now, so

[WSHazel]

1. There is a high risk of selling pressure on the dollar

making an interest rate cut very risky for the Fed.

One of the obvious (but apparently unanticipated by the Bessent/Lutnick/Trump brain trust) consequences of cutting off the U.S. from the rest of the world is that the rest of the world would not need to hold all the dollars that they currently hold. If they started selling those dollars, it would devalue the dollar, increasing inflation, and force interest rates higher.

This was covered in about the 4th or 5th week of sophomore year Macroeconomics for most people, but apparently everyone in the current Administration skipped those classes.

Selling pressure on the dollar has been modest so far. I think the rest of the world, and American traders, are in a bit of a wait and see mode because they are still surprised by how stupid and reckless this Administration has been, and they are hoping that one day it will all return to normal.