July jobs report expected to show a labor market slowing to a crawl

[Wiz Imp]

6. Sheesh. 🙄 I should have been more precise but I didn't have the time at the time I made the post.

I was referring to the primary numbers that are widely publicized - Jobs/unemployment rate, CPI & GDP.

Economic reporting has often, not always been compared to expectations. But it hasn't always been the headline in every news story like it's been under Trump.

3 examples from last year from CNBC on the jobs report:

U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rose to 3.9%
Published Fri, Mar 8 2024
Job growth zoomed in March as payrolls jumped by 303,000 and unemployment dropped to 3.8%
Published Fri, Apr 5 2024
U.S. job creation roared higher in September as payrolls surged by 254,000
Published Fri, Oct 4 2024

The last 3 months this year:

U.S. payroll growth totals 177,000 in April, defying expectations
Published Fri, May 2 2025
U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%
Published Fri, Jun 6 2025
U.S. payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, more than expected
Published Thu, Jul 3 2025

All 3 of those were lousy reports but presented as positive

CPI Reports on CNBC this year

Inflation rate eased to 2.8% in February, lower than expected
Published Wed, Mar 12 2025
Inflation rate eases to 2.4% in March, lower than expected; core at 4-year low
Published Thu, Apr 10 2025
Annual inflation rate hit 2.3% in April, less than expected and lowest since 2021
Published Tue, May 13 2025
U.S. inflation rises 0.1% in May from prior month, less than expected
Published Wed, Jun 11 2025

Then in June when it didn't beat expectations:

Inflation picks up again in June, rising at 2.7% annual rate
Published Tue, Jul 15 2025

In reality, all the CPI data this year has been mediocre but it's being presented as positive.

GDP advance release headlines from CNBC:

U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses
Published Wed, Apr 30 2025
U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump’s tariffs hit
Published Wed, Jul 30 2025

1st quarter - terrible report no comparison to expectations. 2nd quarter - beats expectations but underlying data is not that great, we get a positive headline about beating expectations.

I stand behind my original post.