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Mr.WeRP

(1,098 posts)
Mon Aug 4, 2025, 02:00 PM Aug 2025

Gerrymander THIS. Republicans are Fucked if they play Abbot's and Trump's game. The math: [View all]

Democrats will have an edge if all states do what TX is doing. Note: I assume max conversion of gerrymandering except for TX because we know there they can only pick up 5.

For blue states that gerrymander out republicans districts, we have
PA: 10 seats
CA: 9 seats
NY: 7 seats
WI: 6 seats
MN: 4 seats
CO: 4 seats
IL: 3 seats
NJ: 3 seats
WA: 2 seats
OR: 1 seat
MD: 1 seat
Note: no pickups possible in New England.

That’s a max pickup of 49 seats

On the opposite side the math goes this way:
FL: 8
GA: 5
OH: 5
TX: 5
NC: 4
IN: 2
AL: 2
MO: 2
LA: 2
KS: 1
MS: 1
SC: 1
TN: 1
That’s a max pickup of 37 seats

These states are typically red but have mixed control (Gov/Legislature) so likely no change: AZ, KY, NV, NH, VA

So if the states go to war this way, ultimately Republicans will lose up to 12 seats in the house for a very long time.

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Not just that but the TX map could very well turn out to be a dummymander at the rate that they are relying on Latinos SSJVegeta Aug 2025 #1
"Wait for the translation:" DUU Aug 2025 #2
Also VA may very well have a trifecta state governemnt after November SSJVegeta Aug 2025 #3
Haven't I read that many states have an independent commission to do the re-allocation? erronis Aug 2025 #4
Yes, Colorado is one of them. h2ebits Aug 2025 #16
Even if the Democrats don't do it, it might backfire on the Republicans. everyonematters Aug 2025 #5
I'd rather we stop playing by not playing and start playing with the same rules of engagement. Mr.WeRP Aug 2025 #8
You can't just count the number of representatives by party, it's more complicated than that unblock Aug 2025 #6
Of course, I noted that with TX. Mr.WeRP Aug 2025 #7
Unblock is right... only count States with trifectas. WarGamer Aug 2025 #10
Read a comment on another thread InstantGratification Aug 2025 #17
Isn't the State Senate in PA run by the GOP? WarGamer Aug 2025 #9
Yes Wiz Imp Aug 2025 #11
It may be more complicated.... moose65 Aug 2025 #12
Forget about Pennsylvania. The GOP controls the State Senate Jose Garcia Aug 2025 #13
This message was self-deleted by its author PeaceWave Aug 2025 #14
I think a blue wave makes these gerrymanderes districts Johonny Aug 2025 #15
27 states had their most recent districts drawn by the state legislature (19 Republican, 7 Democratic, 1 split) Wiz Imp Aug 2025 #18
Texas Man DESTROYS Republicans for their Gerrymandering Plan Wiz Imp Aug 2025 #19
One thing that no one is mentioning markodochartaigh Aug 2025 #20
I don't think it would be possible to gerrymandering the only Democratic seat out of Kentucky standingtall Aug 2025 #21
PA, MN, and WI are not Blue Trifecta States so your maths are instantly off. Those 20 Rethug US House cannot be Celerity Aug 2025 #22
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