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Ocelot II

(130,823 posts)
7. It won't last.
Mon Oct 13, 2025, 11:41 AM
Oct 2025
In any negotiation, it's always the tricky final details that are the hardest to agree on. That has especially been the case in the long, dismal history of failed Middle East peace deals - where "final status" issues like where borders would be drawn, and the location of a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem, have tripped up negotiators in the final stretch. In this case, it's the reverse situation.

Yes, there's an agreement for a ceasefire, and the release of hostages and prisoners. But almost everything else appears to have been pushed out to be dealt with later - from the date of a full Israeli withdrawal, to who will govern Gaza afterwards, to an implausible "pathway to Palestinian statehood". The last ceasefire between Israel and Hamas fell apart in March, when a second round of negotiations that were supposed to finalise a peace agreement never got underway. This deal is supposedly far more comprehensive. However, some elements directly contradict Israel's "red-line" positions.

All of which means there is any number of ways this could all fall over - perhaps within days.


*Hamas may not disarm.
*The details of Israel's withdrawal are extremely vague.
*No consensus on Gaza authority. Gaza is to be governed by a temporary committee of Palestinians and international experts to deliver day-to-day public services, overseen by a Board of Peace chaired by Trump - until control can be handed over to a reformed Palestinian Authority.

That's not going to happen, according to Netanyahu - and possibly, also according to Hamas.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/575749/why-the-gaza-ceasefire-could-collapse-over-coming-days

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

I'm going with the latter... Wounded Bear Oct 2025 #1
The bombing will resume by year-end dalton99a Oct 2025 #2
I give it until the end of the week. Johnny2X2X Oct 2025 #5
I don't believe ForgedCrank Oct 2025 #3
If Palestinians are removed so Trump and Netanyahu can have anything like Trump Gaza, I'd expect decades of highplainsdem Oct 2025 #4
This what i never understand about any of this. There will be revenge acts forever travelingthrulife Oct 2025 #12
I believe the bombing will continue soon. OLDMDDEM Oct 2025 #6
It won't last. Ocelot II Oct 2025 #7
Time will tell. Trump, Bibi nor Hamas can be trusted to act in good faith. TheProle Oct 2025 #8
It's giving credit to the fascists in power. Initech Oct 2025 #9
I'll be surprised if the "cease fire" lasts until the end of the year, MarineCombatEngineer Oct 2025 #10
Gaza has been decimated. kentuck Oct 2025 #11
I'm with the majority here True Dough Oct 2025 #13
History says it's likely to be a short-lived peace. MineralMan Oct 2025 #14
The latter n/t malaise Oct 2025 #15
Ceasefire Only JustAnotherGen Oct 2025 #16
Glorified ceasefire as soon as Bibi faces losing power and trial, it ends JT45242 Oct 2025 #17
Nothing has changed. They wany Gaza gone for their Gaza Riviera. Ritabert Oct 2025 #18
What's a "lasting pace"? bif Oct 2025 #19
Just announce the investigation... lame54 Oct 2025 #20
Who knows? But we have to keep trying even if another failure like the 20+ peace agreements that came before. Silent Type Oct 2025 #21
Glorified Cease-Fire Deep State Witch Oct 2025 #22
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Is this lasting pace, or ...»Reply #7