Recession warning signs to watch: Goodbye lipstick, hello Hamburger Helper [View all]

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/10/14/recession-indicators-warning-signs/
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Everything is a “recession indicator” online. Here’s what you really need to pay attention to.

The United States is not in or even near a recession, despite what your grocery bill feels like. But the economy is in an uncertain place, with a number of signs of weakness that economists are monitoring.

For years, one of the best-known recession indicators has been the “lipstick index,” which posits that Americans stock up on cheaper feel-good makeup when times are tough. That one might be outdated — or at least different now — partly because of the popularity of skin care spending and changing consumer habits.

Here are some economic warning signs experts say to watch for.
Cardboard box production
Cardboard boxes power the consumer economy. They not only bring joy in the form of online shopping purchases, they are literally how retailers move goods. When cardboard box production slows, it could be a sign that people are expected to buy less in coming months. And cardboard box production is down.

Hamburger Helper is back
Hamburger Helper sales have bumped up significantly this year, according to parent company Eagle Foods, as people seek out deals on groceries. For decades, people have turned to the packaged pasta-and-seasoning meals when times are tight — or, as social media users have been embracing this year, “struggle meals.”

Sales of big trucks are slumping
Thrifting is in
No more job hopping
Home equity loans up; residential building permits down

Weren't economic issues and high prices big campaign issues last election? How's that working out?