About the percent swing in Tennessee

[Wiz Imp]

1. Extrapolating to the whole country...

There were 33 seats which Republicans won in 2024 by 13% or less. This result suggests that all of those 33 seats are in play for Democrats. And that doesn't account for seats where gerrymandering may have narrowed the gap to under 13%.

If Democrats were to win all 33 of these seats, it would give Democrats a 248-187 majority (61 seats!). Even winning just half of these (17), the Democratic majority would be 232 to 203 (29 seats).