...very few of those things are likely to happen--in large part because of the success of our democratic institutions in building the U.S. into a formidable economic and military force in the years preceding Agent Orange.
In the end, the Greenland conflict seems like it will be fought by diplomats and not soldiers. Sure, some NATO allies are trying to make it look like a military stand is being taken, but in the end is there a real appetite for war--or even armed conflict--with the U.S.? Those moves feel more designed to force diplomacy and signal to the U.S. that NATO can in fact defend Greenland from Russia or Chinese aggression than to really signal a willingness to fight the U.S.
And we have some precedent for NATO allowing infighting to occur without destroying the alliance in the Greco-Turkish conflicts that have long plagued the two bitter rivals and the alliance.
There is a lot the EU could do, but those moves are as likely to fracture their coalition as they are to be effective in repelling the U.S. Even given their fairly robust response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU still hasn't ended all Russian gas and oil imports--and are not even committed to do so until 2027. We hate what you did, but we will still buy your oil and gas for another five years doesn't exactly scream backbone....
The truth is, the world in which we now live helped create the monster they now face in us. We looked stable, responsible, benevolent, and powerful. But even though we've apparently lost our minds, they still need us in many ways. It will be hard for them to abandon that--and it seems unfathomable that it would happen all at once over a dispute over an outlying territory.
It will--no doubt--change a lot of things in the alliance. EU will need to make a plan just in case we are unable to reign this in.
Still, in the end it will probably be true that when you're a superpower, they let you do it. You can do anything.... Grab 'em by the natural resources....
I guess we will all see how this goes....
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