I don't know how to confirm or refute this, but it seems to me that pollsters generally use last year's Gallup findings on party affiliation. And those numbers, which are an average across interviews conducted throughout the year, do not account for the migration from Republican to Independent and Independent to Democrat.
The 2025 numbers
27 Democratic Party
45 Independent
27 Republican Party
As of Q1 2026 (ABC article)
30% Democratic Party
43% Independent
25% Republican Party
The 5 point spread between parties changes to a 10 point spread when you add in the "Lean" for Independents:
49% Democrat/Lean Democrat
39% Republican/Lean Republican
If polls are failing to capture the exodus from the Republican Party, that also explains why support among self-identified Republicans remains so "sticky" -- they are actually measuring the percentage support among what is a shrinking percentage of the overall.
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