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33. Too Much Debt Means the Economy Can’t Grow: Reinhart and Rogoff

As public debt in advanced countries reaches levels not seen since the end of World War II, there is considerable debate about the urgency of taming deficits with the aim of stabilizing and ultimately reducing debt as a percentage of gross domestic product.
Our empirical research on the history of financial crises and the relationship between growth and public liabilities supports the view that current debt trajectories are a risk to long-term growth and stability, with many advanced economies already reaching or exceeding the important marker of 90 percent of GDP. Nevertheless, many prominent public intellectuals continue to argue that debt phobia is wildly overblown. Countries such as the U.S., Japan and the U.K. aren’t like Greece, nor does the market treat them as such.
Indeed, there is a growing perception that today’s low interest rates for the debt of advanced economies offer a compelling reason to begin another round of massive fiscal stimulus. If Asian nations are spinning off huge excess savings partly as a byproduct of measures that effectively force low- income savers to put their money in bank accounts with low government-imposed interest-rate ceilings -- why not take advantage of the cheap money?
Although we agree that governments must exercise caution in gradually reducing crisis-response spending, we think it would be folly to take comfort in today’s low borrowing costs, much less to interpret them as an “all clear” signal for a further explosion of debt.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-14/too-much-debt-means-economy-can-t-grow-commentary-by-reinhart-and-rogoff.html


Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have spent countless hours studying financial crises and debt bubbles. And unfortunately for those with an upbeat economic forecast, their news is not good. For one thing, they expect growth to remain challenged for a long time, thanks in part to the aftermath of the debt binge of the 2000s. "In the advanced economies, think of trend growth being a percentage point lower for a decade more, possibly even two decades more," says Rogoff, a Harvard economics professor who in 2009 co-authored This Time Is Different, with Reinhart, who teaches about the international financial system at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government. The two recently came to Manhattan, where they had a lively discussion with a Barron's editor. They agree that the proper regulatory framework to prevent another severe crisis is achievable. "But can we stay there?" Reinhart asks. For the answer to that question and many others, read on.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703961304578128861988425802.html#articleTabs_article%3D1