General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Why are so many gun owners racist? [View all]hepkat
(143 posts)But there is this article I've read synopsis of that is fairly recent
https://sites.google.com/site/emiliodepetrischauvin/research
Fear of Obama: An Empirical study of the demand for guns and the US 2008 presidential election (2011) -under review-
In this paper I study the demand for guns in the proximity of the US 2008 presidential election. Using monthly data constructed from futures markets on presidential election outcomes and a novel proxy for firearm purchases, I analyze how the demand for guns responds to the likelihood of Barack Obama being elected. My point estimates suggest the existence of a large Obama effect on the demand for guns: a 10-point increase in the probability of Obama being elected is associated with a 4.5 percent increase in the demand for guns. Moreover, this political effect is larger than the effect associated to the worsening economic conditions. Furthermore, I present empirical evidence consistent with the hypotheses that the unprecedented increase in the demand for guns would be partially driven by both a fear of a future Obama gun-control policy and racial prejudice. (last version)
Abstract
In this paper I study the demand for guns during the months sur-
rounding the US 2008 presidential election. Specically, I analyze how it
responds to information regarding the likelihood of Barack Obama being
elected. I present empirical evidence that not only the party aliation
but also the identity of a presidential candidate would matter in terms
of what the individuals expect regarding future administration's policies.
After controlling for state xed eects and state level-time varying covari-
ates accounting for economic climate, my point estimates not only suggest
the existence of a nationwide democrat eect, but more importantly and
in particular, they show the existence of a large Obama eect on the de-
mand for guns. Moreover, this political eect is larger than the eect
associated to the worsening economic conditions. Furthermore, I present
empirical evidence consistent with the hypothesis that the unusual in-
crease in the demand for guns would be partially driven by fears of an
Obama's future gun-control policy. But even more striking, intolerance
against African-Americans would have also played a dierentiating role.