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Mass

(27,315 posts)
Thu May 2, 2013, 06:51 PM May 2013

New Pollster finds close race between Markey and Gomez. [View all]

Emerson College Polling Society finds a close race between Markey and Gomez, with Markey up by 6.

http://emersoncollegepollingsociety.com/ECPS_PR_5.2.pdf

Before people start panicking, a few things.

First, because I had never heard of them and I pretty much know all major MA polling firm, I looked at whom they are. They are brand new. So, we have no idea whether they are any good or not.

Second, the press release does not give any indication of where those people interviewed live. Given the differences between the different parts of MA, le make up of the sample matter. Also, the poll deals with registered voters. During a special election where people do not vote in the first place? Really?

So, while I hope the Markey campaign is serious (and it seems they are), I will wait to hear about well-known posters (Massinc, PPP, Suffolk) before I worry.

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If Markey wins I will congratulate him, if Markey loses, I will say I told you so. graham4anything May 2013 #1
If he loses, I will blame Democrats who spent more time whining than campaigning. Mass May 2013 #4
It reminds me of the Mondale campaign for the Wellstone seat.Markey should be ahead by 25 graham4anything May 2013 #6
He may be 25 points ahead. Given this pollster has no track record, this may be like Lynch poll last Mass May 2013 #7
Yup. I am always wary of pollsters from out of nowhere wanting to strike first graham4anything May 2013 #8
I wouldn't put it past republicans to lie, that party is good at lying these days. nt bluestate10 May 2013 #15
I don't expect Markey to run the type of incompetent campaign that Martha Coakley ran. bluestate10 May 2013 #14
What concerns me is Americans love affair with war, and they will be skewed not on still_one May 2013 #2
We' ll see. We need Democrats to show up and vote. If they do, we' ll win. Mass May 2013 #5
I agree, but when Scott brown won in Mass that really lost still_one May 2013 #9
Scott Brown won because the entire Democratic party was absent at the bar. Mass May 2013 #10
Martha Coakley ran an enormously incompetent campaign. She didn't get out and campaign, bluestate10 May 2013 #16
Interesting. Emerson is in the middle of Boston, elleng May 2013 #3
Women will come out in force for Markey. I predict a Markey win. smirkymonkey May 2013 #11
RAchel Maddow has said Gomez sounds really bad when speaking JI7 May 2013 #12
Markey can't take Gomez for granted. Gomez is a clumsy speaker, but if Markey comes bluestate10 May 2013 #17
i agree, hopefully the Dems learned after Scott Brown won what JI7 May 2013 #19
Is Markey running ads and campaigning where asked to? Dawson Leery May 2013 #20
they might be weighting results for expected off-year turnout 0rganism May 2013 #13
The election is a special election, it isn't an off year election. I was one of the people that bluestate10 May 2013 #18
I read in a local MA paper that Latinos here are torn graywarrior May 2013 #21
Um about this poll. Warren Stupidity May 2013 #22
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