General Discussion

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)

72. I'm not really seeing the bubble in your charts

Thu May 9, 2013, 10:49 AM

May 2013

If anything the Net national product is tracking more or less to the market. I believe that last chart does not adjust to real dollars, so inflation is a big part of that slope. That is another part of the puzzle that nobody wants to talk about. There has been a lot of talk recently about chained CPI understating inflation. But forget that. The "regular old CPI index grossly understates the kind of inflation that most people see because it is so heavily biased by market basket goods that are subsidized (basic food product and oil).

Here is a chart that tracks P/E ratio over the long haul.

The "normal" level seems to be about 18. Today it is 18.45. A year ago it was 2.50 lower.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html

So I'd say we are starting to overheat, but it is still well within the historical range.

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Bank CD rates...WTF? [View all] Bonobo May 2013 OP

You are correct, not long ago, interest rates for CD's were much more than now. It's been about.... northoftheborder May 2013 #1

Ever since the Fed reduced rates back in 2009 (I think it was) the Fed rate has been zero. It costs upaloopa May 2013 #2

That's it mainly RobertEarl May 2013 #11

No that's exactly right Yo_Mama May 2013 #14

Pretty dramatic, isn't it? Except for the high unemployment, inflation would be killing us. BlueStreak May 2013 #31

Great post. I thought a similar thing when the housing bubble burst. Bonobo May 2013 #32

I agree with you about......... mrmpa May 2013 #37

It isn't the value of the house that increases, it is the land under the house depending JDPriestly May 2013 #44

Well, to be fair it is both. Bonobo May 2013 #45

In LA that house would be bought in a heartbeat abelenkpe May 2013 #76

Bubbles are impossible to fix Yo_Mama May 2013 #54

I suppose the argument is that you can slowly let the air out of the balloon BlueStreak May 2013 #58

Without honesty we can't fix anything Yo_Mama May 2013 #61

"Right of Reagan". It is too early for a drink? BlueStreak May 2013 #63

The government Yo_Mama May 2013 #66

I don't think most people realize the importance of the Judiciary BlueStreak May 2013 #67

Exactly right. "It's the wages, stupid." n/t lumberjack_jeff May 2013 #34

Without a circulation mechanism Yo_Mama May 2013 #53

This is exactly right. And nobody wants to speak of it. nt BlueStreak May 2013 #60

It's too terrifying and it would force a change in policies Yo_Mama May 2013 #62

That's an interesting question. Is the market forming a bubble? BlueStreak May 2013 #64

Yes, it is in a bubble Yo_Mama May 2013 #68

I'm not really seeing the bubble in your charts BlueStreak May 2013 #72

Future PE ratios will be considerably worse Yo_Mama May 2013 #82

I agree with you, but maybe for a different reason BlueStreak May 2013 #84

In a macro sense that is an excellent analysis Yo_Mama May 2013 #87

Yu're remembering right. Same thing with the interest rates on money mkt. napi21 May 2013 #3

The DOW went over 15,000 for the first time in history... Bonobo May 2013 #4

in the 1980s mortgages were over 12 percent onenote May 2013 #8

I see the connection, but... Bonobo May 2013 #10

It would be a pretty poor business proposition onenote May 2013 #17

Yes, I see... Bonobo May 2013 #18

But . . . the difference between the lending rate and the deposit rate should not be JDPriestly May 2013 #42

But banks aren't lending most of their money Yo_Mama May 2013 #65

Thanks. Essentially, as I see it, the problem is that the U.S. cannot compete with the cheap JDPriestly May 2013 #90

No - see my other post - banks don't need to compete with the stock market for money Yo_Mama May 2013 #15

Would you consider this FED behavior... CoffeeCat May 2013 #28

All of this is Munificence May 2013 #50

K&R, and welcome to DU Munificence! riderinthestorm May 2013 #70

CDs are to attract deposits so banks can make loans BlueStreak May 2013 #33

Stinks, try some credit unions they have been better.... Historic NY May 2013 #5

I looked at two local credit unions about a month ago. No better than the banks. nt snappyturtle May 2013 #6

There aren't any great options for the person who grew up on CDs. Be very careful. BlueStreak May 2013 #85

My regular saving account used to be five percent abelenkpe May 2013 #7

Christ allmighty... have I been asleep on this? Bonobo May 2013 #9

You got it........ RagAss May 2013 #13

Banks don't invest in the stock market Yo_Mama May 2013 #19

Isn't that precisely what the Glass Steagal Act was all about? nt Bonobo May 2013 #20

"Oh, honey I guess we need to invest in stock market just to keep up with inflation". CountAllVotes May 2013 #38

And you haven't mentioned the computer trading which pushes the prices up artificially. JDPriestly May 2013 #41

Anyone under age 50 is in your same position abelenkpe May 2013 #77

15-year mortgage rates hit new low Fla_Democrat May 2013 #12

Ah, I see... Bonobo May 2013 #16

I'd have to go over the charts Fla_Democrat May 2013 #21

Actually it is more like: in order to force investors into the stock market Warren Stupidity May 2013 #23

Banks have made a killing off of homeowners refinancing... CoffeeCat May 2013 #26

There has been talk defacto7 May 2013 #22

This week on CNBC... CoffeeCat May 2013 #24

I'm not an expert, but I think the whole thing with the stock market is a scam. JDPriestly May 2013 #40

+1000 Blue_Tires May 2013 #59

How much of the boom/bust dynamic is a result of fed policy? dkf May 2013 #81

Actually, the boom/bust cycle plagued our economy during the second half of the JDPriestly May 2013 #89

The fed is supposed to mitigate these moves but instead they exacerbate it lately. dkf May 2013 #95

If interest rates had remained at the average for the last fifty years. Silver Swan May 2013 #25

If you get I-Bonds they pay about 1.75% still_one May 2013 #27

No the 0% one just reset to 1.18% effective May 1 - Oct. 31 CountAllVotes May 2013 #48

I forgot, ever 6 months, it was 1.75%. at least they have inflation protection still_one May 2013 #49

When I bought these 0% they were paying 4.6% (May 2010) CountAllVotes May 2013 #55

You are correct. still_one May 2013 #91

I've been in banking a long time... TexasPaganDem May 2013 #29

Having near zero interest rates also keeps treasury bond rates low. dkf May 2013 #30

Excellent Point Yupster May 2013 #71

The banks are being financed by the Fed. And rich people don't put money in banks anymore. reformist2 May 2013 #35

I think it's time to buy real estate again. lumberjack_jeff May 2013 #36

You aren't seeing things. Bank rates are shockingly low. JDPriestly May 2013 #39

This seems to be a trend in many countries Art_from_Ark May 2013 #43

And considering the Japanese govt. is PLANNING for a healthy inflation rate Bonobo May 2013 #46

Yup, screwed Art_from_Ark May 2013 #47

An inflation rate of 1-2% is more connected with a growing economy than deflation. Nations are very byeya May 2013 #51

It's not that Japan isn't prosperous, Art_from_Ark May 2013 #94

Funny you should mention that. Le Taz Hot May 2013 #52

That must have been the 1980's early on CountAllVotes May 2013 #56

The Key to Having Zero Interest Rates and Moderate Inflation Is To Cut Labor Prices Yavin4 May 2013 #57

So when is the stock market bubble going to burst? rusty fender May 2013 #69

That is the proverbial $64,000 question... truebrit71 May 2013 #73

Not going to happen this year for sure.....possible fall 2014 but more likely fall 2015. cbdo2007 May 2013 #74

Message auto-removed Name removed May 2013 #75

Reagunomics in the 1980s CountAllVotes May 2013 #79

Not if they're not lending... brooklynite May 2013 #78

savers are being screwed by the FEAR of interest rates. greenspud + bernanke are killing savings. pansypoo53219 May 2013 #80

CD rates are killing savers. dawg May 2013 #83

Message auto-removed Name removed May 2013 #86

That describes me to a T. llmart May 2013 #93

Interest rates have been cut to basically nothing, that's why. Warren DeMontague May 2013 #88

Ally bank savings account is 0.84% hugo_from_TN May 2013 #92