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In reply to the discussion: I'm sorry but where have the parents been? [View all]laundry_queen
(8,646 posts)Yes it's like roulette, but it's not a fluke. In areas that are tornado prone, the chances are actually high that a tornado will hit the same spot twice in 50 years. Some Moore official even said during any given spring day, Moore has a 1-2% chance of getting hit by a tornado. That's 1 or 2 tornadoes every hundred days. And - this may come as news - it's not just EF5 tornadoes that kill people. An EF2 will demolish a well built home so you need to be underground or in a reinforced shelter. When you go to EF2-EF5 chances, that's 20% of all tornadoes. So chances are that Moore would get hit with an EF2 or greater every 500- 1000 spring days, or once every 5.5-11 years. That's high risk and not a fluke at all. It's a bit of a fluke that it's an EF5 yet again, but tornadoes in Moore are NOT a fluke, and it doesn't take an EF5 to kill people and destroy buildings. The math actually says there is a significant risk. There are plenty of places in the US that have been hit twice since the 1950's (when they started keeping track of tornado tracks).
Where I live, EF5 tornadoes were supposed to never happen - the chances were statistically zero. Except we had an F4 roll through (would've been an EF5 today if using the enhanced Fujita scale, but Canada still uses the old Fujita scale and this was a long time ago anyway) that was on the ground for over an *hour* and had a 40 km long path of destruction. While we haven't had anything like that happen in the same city, we regularly get small tornadoes and tons of tornado warnings in the summer. Guess what? People PREPARE for tornadoes in the summer! Even though our entire province only gets like 15 a year (1 deadly F3 or greater only happens on average every 10 years). And my child's school has tornado drills.
Here's the page for that tornado. Remember, statistically, the chances of this happening in any given year was a big fat zero (check out how far north that is):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmonton_tornado
Yet it happened.
Where Moore is located, it is really unbelievable to me that there aren't more shelters. We have basements here, so all the deaths with our F4 were people in cars, or in the industrial area or the trailer park (where the tornado had weakened to an F2). In areas where the tornado hit residential areas there were NO deaths, because we have basements. Rebuilding without a shelter after the '99 tornado was simply tempting fate and was extremely foolish, IMO.