Would it ever be possible to eliminate guns?

[sarisataka]

42. Well since it is a thought experiment...

We can take as given:
-the 2 A is repealed or avoided in some fashion
-we have a 99% successful buyback program
-police adopt a system where guns are available to supervisors and in special situations

It is likely:
a) armed criminals will turn to knives and blunt objects, favoring a strong attacker over a weak defender
-not too different than our current status
b) the tendency of guns to travel from the US to Mexico will reverse
-given the more robust economy, the US would pay higher black market prices than Mexico.
-as they already have a distribution network in place, is can be assumed the cartels will rapidly monopolize the illegal arms trade to the US
-unlike countries such as Australia, UK and Japan, we are not an island. We have two long porous borders for direct access and several less than fully secure island nations near by for indirect access
c)there will be impetus to develop more effective non-lethal weaponry
-many people may choose to obtain such for self defense
--while it can be assumed more would do so than choose to carry guns now, it can be assumed it will remain a small percentage
-like guns, non lethal weapons can be used offensively
--non lethal weapons actually make some crimes e.g. kidnapping and rape, easier for the attacker than guns
d)while guns are fairly easily manufactured the average criminal lacks the skills to do so
-the most probable manufacturers of guns would be organized groups with a clear agenda
--most organized crime groups would go to the black market. Those choosing to make their own would likely be biker gangs, hate groups and the so called militias.
e)criminals would loose much of their fear of police in direct confrontations


Expected results
-major drop in gun related deaths paralleled by a overall, but significantly lesser, drop in total homicide
-drop in gun related crime at approximately the same rate as overall homicide decrease
-increase in homicide by means other than firearms
-increase in armed robbery, hot burglary, assault and rape- increases will range from slight to moderate
-increase in importation of illegal guns and drugs (if you are sending one, why not fill out the shipment?)
-increase of injury and death to police officers (this will likely be short lived once scores are settled)
-environmental issues from uncontrolled animal populations due to lack of hunting (we must assume the elimination of all guns or the exercise is pointless)
-the debate will still not end (some will say we need more government control others will want all controls removed)