Virginia DUer's: Who do you really think is going to win.

[cthulu2016]

1. Not to cop-out, but I see it as 50-50

McCauliffe only being up by 4 in the last PPP poll (probably in the ballpark, given that it's PPP) seems like cause for concern.

VA gov races are always in an off-off year (no prez, not even any congress) but we have had a decent Dem record recently despite that turnout depressor, and despite the last election. (McConnell, whose campaign was largely about claiming to be a northern VA moderate)

Cuccinelli is a lunatic... but he was also a lunatic when he won the AG race 4 years ago.

McCauliffe, unlike Warner or Kaine, doesn't have a track record of winning elected offices in Virginia. He will, I suspect, do unusually poorly in the conservative parts of the state because there's no loyalty or personal angle. He's just the guy with a D by his name.

Unless McCauliffe blankets NoVa with ads so scary that they will be decried by inside the beltway fainters as in bad taste I see Cucc probably winning.

Will Hillary (and Bill) campaign for McCauliffe? Might help.