This was the month by month unemployment rate from nov 83 to nov 84 [View all]

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1983-11-01 8.5
1983-12-01 8.3
1984-01-01 8.0
1984-02-01 7.8
1984-03-01 7.8
1984-04-01 7.7
1984-05-01 7.4
1984-06-01 7.2
1984-07-01 7.5
1984-08-01 7.5
1984-09-01 7.3
1984-10-01 7.4
1984-11-01 7.2

At the height of the Reagan recession unemployment reached 10.8. By June of 84 it was 7.2 and lower than Jan 81. Reagan went on to win in a landslide.

There is no evidence that the economy is going to see the drops in unemployment to match the 84 drops. My guess is that the rate in June of 12 will be, at the very best, 8 and more probably around the 8.5 it is now.

This will be a very tough race. Honestly the main reason he has a shot at this, at all, is the incredible weakness of the GOP field combined with his success in foreign policy and non economic domestic policy. Those who think that this race will be a cakewalk are just plain engaging in wishful thinking. Obama has been very lucky in his choice of enemies but unless his economic luck changes for the better, this race will be a nail biter. This will be a Truman-Dewey, not a Reagan Mondale.