And apparently twenty percent of voters are African American. With enough motivation, there could be a surprise:
Translated for a state that was once the Confederate capital, states rights nostalgia equals Voter-ID restrictions; Judeo-Christian principles means Bible-thumping; and free market sounds like predatory lending and sticking it to the working and middle class.
Thats reason enough that African-American voters in Virginias 7th Congressional District should and can try to win that seat back for Democrats.
Black voters are the decisive key to a general election upset thats as tectonic-plate-shifting as Brats primary sucker punch. At the moment, though, the Dems seem satisfied to gleefully stomp on Cantors political grave. Stuck on conventional wisdom thats similar to those establishment Republican rivals who got punked by Brat, Democratic strategists have already resigned Virginias 7th to its red-state faithful.
That would be a mistake, though, and a nasty face palm to a rather robust black Virginia electorate. While its overwhelmingly white, Cantors district is also nearly 20 percent black, according to Census Bureau datain line with Virginias overall population. The states changing fast, and its creating all sorts of creative voting blocs of colora major reason President Barack Obama won it in 2008 and 2012.
It depends now on what Democrats do and the appeal of Democratic nominee Jack Trammellwho, like Brat, is a Randolph-Macon College professor. You can laugh; did you laugh when a black man with the middle name Hussein ran for president six years ago?
Its not like Cantors seat was all that locked up for Republicans: the majority leader went from garnering 76 percent of the vote in 2004 to snagging only 58 percent in 2012. And while the district has been reliably red since 1996, it leaned blue enough to vote for current Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) in 2008.
http://www.theroot.com/articles/politics/2014/06/black_voters_and_democrats_shouldn_t_give_dave_brat_a_pass.html?wpisrc=burger
Sometimes the conventional wisdom doesn't carry through. Time will tell--time, and organization. Someone should get ahold of Trammell, clean him up a bit, hone his message and teach him how to give a non-responsive response when he doesn't know the answer.