Nate Silver: Republican chances are about 55 percent now.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

7. The valve on the polling fire hose is really starting to open up.

Polling: Since we're already in the middle of September of an election year, the valve on the polling fire hose is really starting to open up. Here's what Monday brought us on the Senate front:

◦AK-Sen: Harstad Research (D): Mark Begich (D-inc): 45, Dan Sullivan (R): 40, Mark Fish (Lib): 6 (Aug.: 41-40 Begich) (conducted for Senate Majority PAC and Put Alaska First).

◦AR-Sen: Answers Unlimited: Mark Pryor (D-inc): 46, Tom Cotton (R): 42 (conducted for Southern Progress, a pro-Democratic group).

◦AR-Sen: Gravis Marketing (R): Cotton (R): 47, Pryor (D-inc): 43 (July: 51-44 Cotton) (among registered voters).

◦GA-Sen: Landmark Communications (R): Michelle Nunn (D): 46, David Perdue (R): 43, Amanda Swafford (Lib): 6 (Aug.: 47-40 Nunn).

◦IL-Sen: APC Research: Dick Durbin (D-inc): 55, Jim Oberweis (R): 32, Sharon Hansen (Lib): 5 (among registered voters).

◦MI-Sen: Mitchell Research: Gary Peters (D): 43, Terri Lynn Land (R): 41 (Aug.: 46-44 Peters).

◦MN-Sen: Mason-Dixon: Al Franken (D-inc): 49, Mike McFadden (R): 36.

◦NC-Sen: American Insights (R): Kay Hagan (D-inc): 43, Thom Tillis (R): 34, Sean Haugh (Lib): 5 (Feb.: 38-35 Hagan).

◦NC-Sen: Elon University: Hagan 45, Tillis 41 (43-37 Hagan among registered voters).

◦NH-Sen: CNN/ORC: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 48, Scott Brown (R): 48 (51-44 Shaheen among registered voters).

◦NH-Sen: Kiley & Company (D): Shaheen: 51, Brown: 43 (Early Sept.: 51-43) (conducted for the DSCC).

◦NH-Sen: Magellan Strategies (R): Brown: 46, Shaheen: 44 (July: 46-41 Shaheen) (conducted for Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire).

◦NH-Sen: Rasmussen: Shaheen: 48, Brown: 42 (March: Shaheen 50, Brown 41).