Audi gets first California permit to test self-driving cars on public roads and highways.

[politicat]

33. The national fleet turns over about every 8 years.

Some people buy a new every couple years, some stretch them until the wheels fall off, but the good bet is always that within a decade, much of the fleet is rotating out. If autonomous cars appeared on the market tomorrow, by 2024, 80% of the fleet would be autonomous capable, and by 2034, it would be 99%. (Currently, less than 2% of cars on the road were built before 1994.)

I will personally camp out like it's a Lord of the Rings opening night to buy an electric autonomous. I hate driving, I hate putting gas in the tank, I hate everything about cars except the fact that they get me from place to place without making me carsick like the bus does. (It's the stops and starts and not being able to predict them coming because I can't see the traffic.) I have so many better uses for my time than driving.

But getting the legal infrastructure in place is something we have to think about -- this will be as disruptive a technology as the car was. It will change how we insure, how we develop neighborhoods, how we handle streets and roads and sidewalks and pedestrians. How we license and how we hold people responsible (can I put a 12 year old in an autonomous programmed to take her to school? Or does she need an adult in the car? She's allowed to call a taxi, or walk to school, so.... What will be the law?)

It will be an issue, and a lot sooner than expected. After all, 15 years ago, nobody was making laws about hands-free cellphones and banning texting.