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Showing Original Post only (View all)Ebola is less contagious than the flu. Fact. [View all]
It has an R0 of 2. Measles has an R0 of 18. But let's not let facts get in the way of our hysteria, shall we?
NPR has a good summary:
The reproduction number, or "R nought," is a mathematical term that tells you how contagious an infectious disease is. Specifically, it's the number of people who catch the disease from one sick person, on average, in an outbreak.*
SNIP
Many factors contribute to the R0, such as how long you're infectious** and how many virus particles are needed to make another person sick.
With exponential growth, the numbers can get big, quickly.
But in Ebola's case, the mode of transmission probably helps keep its R0 low. Ebola isn't spread through the air, like the measles or flu. It requires close contact with some bodily fluid, such as blood or vomit, containing the virus.
Now at this point, you're probably thinking, "OK. But an R0 of 2 is nothing to brush off." You're right. R0 of 2 means one person infects two people, who then infect four people, then eight, 16, 32 the numbers go up fast.
But that isn't likely to happen in a place with a good public health system, like the U.S. Why? Because people with Ebola aren't contagious until they show symptoms.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/10/02/352983774/no-seriously-how-contagious-is-ebola
The point being that this is not a disease we should fear. I understand that the media have whipped up a frenzy about this disease, but in a country with a decent public health system, we should not be overly concerned. To be sure, the people who work directly with these patients are most at risk. But most of those other 80 people probably do not have anything to worry about.
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IF the CDC fucks up this badly on an Ebola case, I tremble at the thought of an evolved flu.
MohRokTah
Oct 2014
#1
I get a flu shot every year. I wonder if an evolved flu would be able to get past a flu shot.
Louisiana1976
Oct 2014
#3
The major media has decided to appeal only to the reptilian part of the American brain.
Fred Sanders
Oct 2014
#24
Sir, I am not making light of it, but making heavy of it is getting out of control.
Fred Sanders
Oct 2014
#111
Do you have a link to that story, the last paragraph? I'd like access to be able to pass it on.
uppityperson
Oct 2014
#10
Yeah, but I've had the flu, and it never made me bleed out of my eyeballs and
TwilightGardener
Oct 2014
#7
True. And it's also far more fatal. And we've already shown that we're not very well prepared
pnwmom
Oct 2014
#12
I don't know, but the fact is they weren't ready. Emory University Hospital said that the
pnwmom
Oct 2014
#21
Emory had to go to Home Depot for trash cans because the private company they
suffragette
Oct 2014
#84
Compare that to the million and a half deaths each for AIDS and TB, or the half million for malaria.
Donald Ian Rankin
Oct 2014
#45
Scientific fact about the contagion factor is now to be panned? If you must....
Fred Sanders
Oct 2014
#25
The jury, meaning the media of course, is stupid. I trust the judge,the medical experts. Just me.
Fred Sanders
Oct 2014
#109
It is the NATURE of the disease: One's innards literally melt and are defecated. Orifices bleed.
WinkyDink
Oct 2014
#19
This seems literal to me---"SLOUGHING OF THE GUT AND VENTING FROM THE ANUS":
WinkyDink
Oct 2014
#114
Actions by stupid people can boost that RO. And the high mortality more than makes up for the lower
kestrel91316
Oct 2014
#22
Thank you for all you have been doing to try and calm some of the fears out there
Marrah_G
Oct 2014
#65
I feel sorry for you, alarimer, the amount of logical disconnection your non fear mongering post has
Fred Sanders
Oct 2014
#28
About a zillion people are involved in auto accidents and a few thousand of those people die.
cherokeeprogressive
Oct 2014
#29
Your identification is checked everywhere. Country of origin is on your passport. nt
eilen
Oct 2014
#104
My question is about when the state is in charge and when the fed cdc can/should step in
Marrah_G
Oct 2014
#70
Great idea! Chap your hands by over scrubbing! Make lots of little abrasions for bacteria/viruses
uppityperson
Oct 2014
#66
Of course ebola is more lethal. I have not seen anyone say otheriwse. The OP is about being contagio
uppityperson
Oct 2014
#99
Did you miss the point of the op about how contagious it is? Not how lethal?
uppityperson
Oct 2014
#100
Another layperson conflating risk of transmission with risk of death. In your "matrix" the risk of
Fred Sanders
Oct 2014
#110
Of course, what is known is based on known history & historically limited sample sizes
HereSince1628
Oct 2014
#108