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Sparhawk60

(359 posts)

105. Fact, Two Elements to a Risk Matrix

Fri Oct 3, 2014, 07:28 AM

Oct 2014

One problem with your comparison. If I get the flue, I am sick in bed a week or so, maybe my family catches it from me and they are bed ridden for a while before we all get better sand get on with our lives.
With Ebola, I die a nasty, brutal death, and possibly take my whole family down with me.

A proper risk matrix has not one, but TWO axis. Probability and severity of event. The total risk is the combination of the two. So yes, the probability of me catching Ebola is less than catching the flue, but the severity of the event is orders of magnitude worst with Ebola.

Therefor, the risk is greater with Ebola. Whistling past the grave yard will not make the problem go away. Ten years from now, I would rather say "remember when we all over reacted over that Ebola thing a few years ago, that was silly of us" than to have millions dead because we down played the danger.

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Ebola is less contagious than the flu. Fact. [View all] alarimer Oct 2014 OP

IF the CDC fucks up this badly on an Ebola case, I tremble at the thought of an evolved flu. MohRokTah Oct 2014 #1

I get a flu shot every year. I wonder if an evolved flu would be able to get past a flu shot. Louisiana1976 Oct 2014 #3

there is no generic flu shot that immunizes you against a new strain. KittyWampus Oct 2014 #9

I ended up in the hospital... ReRe Oct 2014 #17

Influenza vaccines immunize the body against what epidemiologists NuclearDem Oct 2014 #26

I know that now... ReRe Oct 2014 #31

Wash your hands frequently jberryhill Oct 2014 #94

I'm real good at that practice... ReRe Oct 2014 #118

What have they done wrong here? alarimer Oct 2014 #4

They had no protocols in place to handle the domicile of an infected person. MohRokTah Oct 2014 #11

Here's what I would do if I was a hospital administrator: ReRe Oct 2014 #23

Not the CDC, its Texas. JaneyVee Oct 2014 #32

CDC's fault 100 percent! yeoman6987 Oct 2014 #78

I did a a little looking Marrah_G Oct 2014 #86

I kind of find it alarming that Homeland Security, NSA and airport security eilen Oct 2014 #101

I think that the CDC is essentially only a warning system - hedgehog Oct 2014 #96

True but the flu won't sell media coverage right now. upaloopa Oct 2014 #2

The major media has decided to appeal only to the reptilian part of the American brain. Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #24

I usually agree with you, Fred Sanders Aerows Oct 2014 #73

Sir, I am not making light of it, but making heavy of it is getting out of control. Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #111

Don't you think there should be some mechanism to trace exposure eilen Oct 2014 #102

This is what worries me cannabis_flower Oct 2014 #5

Good luck, I keep trying to point out Warpy Oct 2014 #6

Do you have a link to that story, the last paragraph? I'd like access to be able to pass it on. uppityperson Oct 2014 #10

Yeah, but I've had the flu, and it never made me bleed out of my eyeballs and TwilightGardener Oct 2014 #7

/\ this nt DustyJoe Oct 2014 #8

1918: hedgehog Oct 2014 #97

I wonder... TeeYiYi Oct 2014 #113

True. And it's also far more fatal. And we've already shown that we're not very well prepared pnwmom Oct 2014 #12

Why would they not handle it any differently than HIV-contaminated materials? alarimer Oct 2014 #20

I don't know, but the fact is they weren't ready. Emory University Hospital said that the pnwmom Oct 2014 #21

DOT regulations Aerows Oct 2014 #58

Why is it that people make Aerows Oct 2014 #79

Emory had to go to Home Depot for trash cans because the private company they suffragette Oct 2014 #84

I guess the 3,286 who've died this year as of 9/28 sunnystarr Oct 2014 #13

Compare that to the million and a half deaths each for AIDS and TB, or the half million for malaria. Donald Ian Rankin Oct 2014 #45

I think it is the speed in which people are dying of it. eilen Oct 2014 #103

Every life lost is a trajedy Marrah_G Oct 2014 #57

People are freaked out because it's a scary new thing Marrah_G Oct 2014 #14

And media hysteria does not help. alarimer Oct 2014 #18

Less contagious. But much more deadly. LisaL Oct 2014 #15

So now DU has feel-good posts about the deadly ebola? Demeter Oct 2014 #16

Scientific fact about the contagion factor is now to be panned? If you must.... Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #25

Here is the thing Aerows Oct 2014 #80

The jury, meaning the media of course, is stupid. I trust the judge,the medical experts. Just me. Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #109

You know why right? Puzzledtraveller Oct 2014 #43

Not sure I get what you mean by that Marrah_G Oct 2014 #64

You're wrong. The "move on, nothing to see here folks" ecstatic Oct 2014 #85

Lol, yeah Puzzledtraveller Oct 2014 #93

Science and facts are not "feel good" posts Marrah_G Oct 2014 #63

It is the NATURE of the disease: One's innards literally melt and are defecated. Orifices bleed. WinkyDink Oct 2014 #19

"One's innards literally melt and are defecated" hedgehog Oct 2014 #98

This seems literal to me---"SLOUGHING OF THE GUT AND VENTING FROM THE ANUS": WinkyDink Oct 2014 #114

Actions by stupid people can boost that RO. And the high mortality more than makes up for the lower kestrel91316 Oct 2014 #22

Stupidity makes Ebola airborne? Shit, it must have gone digital in GD. Barack_America Oct 2014 #41

Please refrain from putting words in my mouth. kestrel91316 Oct 2014 #47

Um, so I am an MD. An MD/PhD, actually. Barack_America Oct 2014 #52

This message was self-deleted by its author Aerows Oct 2014 #59

Thank you for all you have been doing to try and calm some of the fears out there Marrah_G Oct 2014 #65

Thanks. No name changes have been allowed since 2008... Barack_America Oct 2014 #68

LOL Marrah_G Oct 2014 #69

Agreed Aerows Oct 2014 #60

It's gonna kill us all! NuclearDem Oct 2014 #27

I feel sorry for you, alarimer, the amount of logical disconnection your non fear mongering post has Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #28

About a zillion people are involved in auto accidents and a few thousand of those people die. cherokeeprogressive Oct 2014 #29

Actually, they don't. jeff47 Oct 2014 #51

I did not know that. I stand corrected. cherokeeprogressive Oct 2014 #76

That's my understanding, which is why the number's so high jeff47 Oct 2014 #115

thats fantastic 1dogleft Oct 2014 #30

Patient came from Brussels, not direct flight from Liberia. JaneyVee Oct 2014 #35

Your identification is checked everywhere. Country of origin is on your passport. nt eilen Oct 2014 #104

I'm so scared I haven't left my house for weeks! progressoid Oct 2014 #33

big on theory, but not in practice riverwalker Oct 2014 #34

The bubonic plague was less infectious... sendero Oct 2014 #36

Just last week Obama said it was 'unlikely' that Ebola would come to the US. Chemisse Oct 2014 #49

Really? I clearly heard him state that at least one likely would... Barack_America Oct 2014 #62

My question is about when the state is in charge and when the fed cdc can/should step in Marrah_G Oct 2014 #70

The flu and measles don't kill Aerows Oct 2014 #37

But it's MUTATING! Barack_America Oct 2014 #38

Yes, it probably is Aerows Oct 2014 #40

Thanks, I'm aware. Ok if I remain non-hysterical? Barack_America Oct 2014 #44

Individual Aerows Oct 2014 #46

Virions (viral particles) aren't technically organisms, but whatever. Barack_America Oct 2014 #55

Are we going to debate Biology Aerows Oct 2014 #56

Usually, people with ebola are too busy dying horrible deaths... LostInAnomie Oct 2014 #39

And how many people in the US Aerows Oct 2014 #42

Usually.�. but watch this cannabis_flower Oct 2014 #117

You're right�it is much more likely that you'll be hit by lightning PCIntern Oct 2014 #48

No kidding. n/t Aerows Oct 2014 #50

we need a lot of education gopiscrap Oct 2014 #53

This just happened today: Blue_Tires Oct 2014 #54

It is recommended that you wash your hands Aerows Oct 2014 #61

Believe it or not, that's almost exactly how the conversation went Blue_Tires Oct 2014 #81

Great idea! Chap your hands by over scrubbing! Make lots of little abrasions for bacteria/viruses uppityperson Oct 2014 #66

Even OR's are moving away from those awful iodine sponge/brushes... Barack_America Oct 2014 #71

oh my...... Marrah_G Oct 2014 #67

If people are excessively Aerows Oct 2014 #75

50% of those infected with the flu don't DIE. Indydem Oct 2014 #72

If it was a family member that you loved Aerows Oct 2014 #74

And the flu transmits much easier and infects far more people. Marrah_G Oct 2014 #77

Agreed AnalystInParadise Oct 2014 #83

Of course they are not the same :) Marrah_G Oct 2014 #88

Fair enough AnalystInParadise Oct 2014 #90

I think that people should be cautious Marrah_G Oct 2014 #92

Of course ebola is more lethal. I have not seen anyone say otheriwse. The OP is about being contagio uppityperson Oct 2014 #99

True Story AnalystInParadise Oct 2014 #82

Above all, keep shopping! nt Zorra Oct 2014 #87

Thankfully, we should be grateful it is not more like the common cold. Rex Oct 2014 #89

Yup Marrah_G Oct 2014 #91

and the flu isn't in the same universe as deadly TorchTheWitch Oct 2014 #95

Did you miss the point of the op about how contagious it is? Not how lethal? uppityperson Oct 2014 #100

Fact, Two Elements to a Risk Matrix Sparhawk60 Oct 2014 #105

thank you! invalidating legit concern as "hysteria" is a weird phenom here n/t zazen Oct 2014 #107

Another layperson conflating risk of transmission with risk of death. In your "matrix" the risk of Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #110

Bet They Do Sparhawk60 Oct 2014 #112

Sounds more like an AIDS comparison HockeyMom Oct 2014 #106

Of course, what is known is based on known history & historically limited sample sizes HereSince1628 Oct 2014 #108

but a deathly airborne exotic virus is so much more fun. La Lioness Priyanka Oct 2014 #116