Ebola is less contagious than the flu. Fact.

[HereSince1628]

108. Of course, what is known is based on known history & historically limited sample sizes

As the details emerge from this largest of Ebola outbreaks, this picture will be subject to change.

That isn't to say that the picture will change radically, or that there should be fearful distrust public health officials and their assurances.

Although it is somewhat Rumsfeldian sounding, we should keep in mind that the public comments are based on what is known to be known. It's all retrospectively based, and is something of an echo chamber set to harmonically amplify reassuring aspects of past understanding. On the otherhand, precautions are taken with respect for uncertainty.


Scientific experience suggests that past understanding should always be suspected of being incomplete.

Consequently, science dictates keeping an open mind. Open to unknowns and aware to how greater experience reveals the unknown, sometimes in ways that can be expected and sometimes not.

We can be almost certain of some things that will be changing: better estimates of what behaviors result in exposure will emerge; better understanding of treatment outcomes will accumulate; better understanding of survivability and factors that correlate with survivability and mortality will accumulate.

Why can I be so sure of that? Because increasing sample size increases sensitivity.

Setting aside mutational changes and horizontal inheritance which often aren't predictable, larger samples sizes and greater surveillance possible, as well as the mere accumulation of experience, have increasing likelihood of revealing new understanding. Low probability modes of transmission and exposure risks that by chance haven't been seen before, will become more detectable as the N gets large.



Believing assurances by health officials is a matter of personal and public trust.

We oughtn't quickly toss that trust out the window because what is known changes.

We certainly oughtn't toss out that trust because precautions taken, with huge respect for the unexpected and yet known, seem to contradict statements of public reassurance.


What is known about Ebola -is- going to change, that's going to be a good thing.