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NutmegYankee

(16,478 posts)

14. A lot of factors for CT. Malloy beat Foley last election by only a few thousand votes.

Reply to LukeFL (Reply #3)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 06:16 PM

Nov 2014

I think he is actually toast because the third candidate, Visconti, is polling 7% based on his opposition to the gun law after Sandy hook. If those voters switch to Foley, it's over.

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Nate Silver's gubernatorial forecast. [View all] RandySF Nov 2014 OP

Well, that's depressing. WTF is wrong with Michigan?!? catbyte Nov 2014 #1

That's the probability he assigns to winning not the percent vote taken by the winner HereSince1628 Nov 2014 #2

I know. The polls are tied & absentee ballots are up 9% in Detroit. Still too high. catbyte Nov 2014 #12

Silver uses complicated weightings, and one of them is incumbency HereSince1628 Nov 2014 #15

CT: 50/50? Why? And MA? LukeFL Nov 2014 #3

A lot of factors for CT. Malloy beat Foley last election by only a few thousand votes. NutmegYankee Nov 2014 #14

Good for Maine, but MA? TheCowsCameHome Nov 2014 #4

Are you kidding it's great news for Maine if it holds up......n/t 4bucksagallon Nov 2014 #6

Wisconsin, bleh IDemo Nov 2014 #5

Dems are lower shows for midterms than R"S HereSince1628 Nov 2014 #8

76% in Wisconsin? That much?! BlueStater Nov 2014 #7

I don't believe it. Greybnk48 Nov 2014 #9

The polling is essentially tied...the 76% is Silvers assigned probability of a win HereSince1628 Nov 2014 #10

please, big Dog in the Sky, please,please,please make LeRage go away magical thyme Nov 2014 #11

NooOOOoooOOOoooOOOooo gollygee Nov 2014 #13