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Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
57. It'll be a long, long time before they stop becoming export-dependent.
Wed May 2, 2012, 05:11 PM
May 2012

Count on that. In 2008 China lost 20 million jobs at the drop of a hat because of our recession. That's a huge vulnerability, one that will take at LEAST a generation to fix. China doesn't have nearly that long. Before that time passes, we will suffer either import price miserable inflation (as opposed to import price hyperinflation) or a domestic currency stumble* (or collapse)... and their great miracle will explode in their faces. The price of imports will go up without tariffs. BEFORE China can become immune to it. It's already happening - that's why we're bringing the jobs back.

Another problem is racing to kill China before that: their self-destructive environmental policy, or lack thereof. Your precious offshoring phenomenon which you defend so much, has also been responsible for encouraging China to pollute their air and water so thoroughly that China is facing a major water crisis. Cite: http://articles.cnn.com/2010-09-13/world/china.water.crisis_1_water-shortages-water-supplies-drinking-water?_s=PM:WORLD. Sure, your arguments have made China richer, but they're also making them quite a lot sicker. Happy yet? This is relevant, also: because it will brutally kill China's economy in a way that will make World War II pale in comparison.

I'm sure you have something to say about the fact that if China had strong anti-pollution laws to start with, we would not have moved our jobs there in the first place. Or do you?

Oh, and you mentioned Japan. Well, Japan transitioned, alright - their high-value goods export-based economy caused the Yen to skyrocket in value. Ever heard of the "Lost Decade"? It started because of that. Oh yeah, and I forgot... they also outsourced a lot of jobs overseas. You bring up Japan but I expect you'll orphan this argument, too, after I remind you of this: postwar Japan had employment for life. Post-free-trade Japan got rid of that. Job stability is crap in Japan, and now they have a whole new generation of men who have little hopes of achieving what their fathers did. These are called herbivore men: http://articles.cnn.com/2009-06-05/world/japan.herbivore.men_1_japanese-men-men-and-women-girlfriend?_s=PM:WORLD

Hmmmm. Funny, that. Japan's culture of lifetime employment transitioned to employee expendability and increased unemployment and hopelessness for the working class after they started outsourcing their jobs. Do you have anything to say about that?

Oh and did I forget to mention that Japan was one of those war-wrecked economies that you spoke of?

Oh, and you also mentioned GERMANY, yet another economy recovering from the ruins of World War II. Germany is starting to move production to cheaper labor countries: such as the United States. BMW has put factories here, to get around their unions in Germany. Germany also has some interesting and sneaky trade barriers, too. You'd be bouncing off the walls with rage if we had these trade barriers: http://seekingalpha.com/article/212461-what-the-u-s-can-learn-from-germany-about-managing-its-trade-deficit

Hope this helps.

* that's happening as we speak, as evidenced by the skyrocketing price of gold

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0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

"In order for free trade to even exist, one populace has to be impoverished." HiPointDem May 2012 #1
Yes yes yes. It's the labor arbitrage Populist_Prole May 2012 #18
"Free trade is all about the (labor) arbitrage." Including US trade with Canada or Australia? pampango May 2012 #33
You're mixing the idea of trade with "free trade". girl gone mad May 2012 #66
Prison labor will solve the repukes problem with increasing global wage increases. Elwood P Dowd May 2012 #2
Prison and the under sixteen year population. Repukes nirvana - free slaves. geckosfeet May 2012 #3
Try Googling "Top 10 Corporate Tax Loopholes" and you learn "The Rest of the Story" FreakinDJ May 2012 #4
true. labor & tax arbitrage. HiPointDem May 2012 #55
H. Ross Perot was right James48 May 2012 #5
i always hear how we have to be competitive. ejpoeta May 2012 #8
+1 uponit7771 May 2012 #10
Ross Perot was a free-trade monopolist. n/t Uncle Joe May 2012 #58
China Is Already Losing DallasNE May 2012 #6
Africa has horrible infrastructure and some very spotty governments, I guess. Systematic Chaos May 2012 #7
Not for the Southern Countries but of course they'll run out of head room too in prices uponit7771 May 2012 #11
Good point. Mexico is much closer. treestar May 2012 #9
Apple Does Some Stuff In Mexico DallasNE May 2012 #23
They want us to be more like Mexico treestar May 2012 #24
I worked for a company that made phones. CrispyQ May 2012 #14
Mexico has actual labor laws nadinbrzezinski May 2012 #17
to your last question shanti May 2012 #63
Mexico wasn't passed up-- they just became 'too expensive' early in the process. Marr May 2012 #69
You've never dealt with the issue treestar May 2012 #12
Why do you think that is? jp11 May 2012 #20
Why didn't their wages go up? treestar May 2012 #25
As I predicted, you're not even dealing with the topic at hand. Zalatix May 2012 #26
Why is it that cheaper labor is used? treestar May 2012 #30
With tariffs, I can move to the midwest, or pass living wage laws to help the midwest Zalatix May 2012 #39
Get what? treestar May 2012 #44
I run a business, I don't fanatically try to save. Zalatix May 2012 #51
An economist like Paul Krugman would answer: this is great! eallen May 2012 #13
Paul Krugman has allegedly repented his Neoliberal ways. You're massively out-of-date. nt Romulox May 2012 #15
Got a link to show Paul Krugman now opposes free trade? Nye Bevan May 2012 #21
"...there is a short-run case for protectionism" Paul Krugman, February 1, 2009. Romulox May 2012 #27
"Everything I’ve just said applies only when the world is stuck in a liquidity trap..." Nye Bevan May 2012 #40
"...a lot of 'yes, but!' type nonsense," Romulox May 2012 #45
From a Paul Krugman "expert" who isn't up to speed with the man's work from 2009, no less. Romulox May 2012 #46
Here ya go, a few examples Zalatix May 2012 #28
Not nearly to the extent you think. eallen May 2012 #62
It's a far cry from what Krugman used to say. Zalatix May 2012 #68
Offshoring was not about comparative advantage. Zalatix May 2012 #32
Excellent post, Zalatix. Bookmarked. Love your excerpts and (quite liberal) scenario: pampango May 2012 #16
The problem for your theory is that jobs will LEAVE the third world and come back here. Zalatix May 2012 #29
True, but they will have built up a domestic market that they did not have before. pampango May 2012 #36
Correction: They couldn't have done this without sucking us dry. Zalatix May 2012 #37
China is an export-oriented economy as is Germany (which is much more export-oriented pampango May 2012 #49
It'll be a long, long time before they stop becoming export-dependent. Zalatix May 2012 #57
Utopian capitalism is a tough sell, these days. nt Romulox May 2012 #31
Just responding to the "utopian" scenario in the OP, my good Romulox. n/t pampango May 2012 #34
Right, but the so-called "utopian" scenario in the OP was MOCKING your ideology-- Romulox May 2012 #35
It did. Zalatix May 2012 #38
I don't see "mocking" in the OP nor did many others, but thanks for coming to Zalatix' rescue. pampango May 2012 #54
Right above your post Zalatix confirms my interpretation. Is this feigned confusion, or real? nt Romulox May 2012 #56
"What happens when you run out of sources of cheap labor" mathematic May 2012 #19
Good news. This shows that free trade works. Nye Bevan May 2012 #22
What... Marr May 2012 #70
A group of energy analysts did a study that predicted that because of Obama's energy policies, bluestate10 May 2012 #41
What happens is, labor world wide gains power against corporate supremacy. Uncle Joe May 2012 #42
A one world Government? How many did you knock back to come to THAT conclusion? Zalatix May 2012 #43
When global labor; become equalized as per your OP and it gains power, Uncle Joe May 2012 #48
A global government would incite a global civil war instead. Or global fascism. Zalatix May 2012 #59
1. A global government would be larger than any national government. Uncle Joe May 2012 #60
Nice pipe dream. You won't even get that far. We've been trying and it has failed repeatedly. Zalatix May 2012 #61
It took World War I to bring about the League of Nations, it took World War II to create Uncle Joe May 2012 #65
The so-called global powers do not have the influence to force Asia to join. Zalatix May 2012 #67
No nation needs to be forced. Uncle Joe May 2012 #71
And if China and the Middle East reject said government, which they will Zalatix May 2012 #72
Then it's almost global in which case humanity will need to learn to walk before it can run. Uncle Joe May 2012 #73
You fool nobody. Not a single person is persuaded by this type of schlock. nt Romulox May 2012 #76
Please come back when you actually have a legitimate rebuttal to my argument. nt Uncle Joe May 2012 #78
First you need to have an argument. Zalatix May 2012 #79
Um, in *reality* that happens, or was it some sort of fever-dream? Romulox May 2012 #47
Reality is the "Law of diminishing returns." Uncle Joe May 2012 #50
So hard to produce a quippy response to gibberish! nt Romulox May 2012 #52
He's been watching too much Star Trek lately. Zalatix May 2012 #75
He's gone too far now. It's obviously a put-on. Not subtle, *at all*. nt Romulox May 2012 #77
Grover Norquist had a really scary response to that question Taverner May 2012 #53
Years ago I said jobs would come back when we were impoverished enough lunatica May 2012 #64
Piracy is another reason jmowreader May 2012 #74
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