General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Free traders do NOT want to discuss WHY manufacturing is coming back to the USA [View all]Zalatix
(8,994 posts)Count on that. In 2008 China lost 20 million jobs at the drop of a hat because of our recession. That's a huge vulnerability, one that will take at LEAST a generation to fix. China doesn't have nearly that long. Before that time passes, we will suffer either import price miserable inflation (as opposed to import price hyperinflation) or a domestic currency stumble* (or collapse)... and their great miracle will explode in their faces. The price of imports will go up without tariffs. BEFORE China can become immune to it. It's already happening - that's why we're bringing the jobs back.
Another problem is racing to kill China before that: their self-destructive environmental policy, or lack thereof. Your precious offshoring phenomenon which you defend so much, has also been responsible for encouraging China to pollute their air and water so thoroughly that China is facing a major water crisis. Cite: http://articles.cnn.com/2010-09-13/world/china.water.crisis_1_water-shortages-water-supplies-drinking-water?_s=PM:WORLD. Sure, your arguments have made China richer, but they're also making them quite a lot sicker. Happy yet? This is relevant, also: because it will brutally kill China's economy in a way that will make World War II pale in comparison.
I'm sure you have something to say about the fact that if China had strong anti-pollution laws to start with, we would not have moved our jobs there in the first place. Or do you?
Oh, and you mentioned Japan. Well, Japan transitioned, alright - their high-value goods export-based economy caused the Yen to skyrocket in value. Ever heard of the "Lost Decade"? It started because of that. Oh yeah, and I forgot... they also outsourced a lot of jobs overseas. You bring up Japan but I expect you'll orphan this argument, too, after I remind you of this: postwar Japan had employment for life. Post-free-trade Japan got rid of that. Job stability is crap in Japan, and now they have a whole new generation of men who have little hopes of achieving what their fathers did. These are called herbivore men: http://articles.cnn.com/2009-06-05/world/japan.herbivore.men_1_japanese-men-men-and-women-girlfriend?_s=PM:WORLD
Hmmmm. Funny, that. Japan's culture of lifetime employment transitioned to employee expendability and increased unemployment and hopelessness for the working class after they started outsourcing their jobs. Do you have anything to say about that?
Oh and did I forget to mention that Japan was one of those war-wrecked economies that you spoke of?
Oh, and you also mentioned GERMANY, yet another economy recovering from the ruins of World War II. Germany is starting to move production to cheaper labor countries: such as the United States. BMW has put factories here, to get around their unions in Germany. Germany also has some interesting and sneaky trade barriers, too. You'd be bouncing off the walls with rage if we had these trade barriers: http://seekingalpha.com/article/212461-what-the-u-s-can-learn-from-germany-about-managing-its-trade-deficit
Hope this helps.
* that's happening as we speak, as evidenced by the skyrocketing price of gold