General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Hillary Clinton can not beat Jeb Bush [View all]Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Nobody else we nominate would threaten 50/50 against Jeb.
I hope the GOP screws up and nominates somebody else. In that case, I would be very confident in Hillary's chances.
Right now I would expect Hillary to lose a very tight race if Jeb is the opponent, and to defeat anyone else. It all depends on Obama's approval rating in 2016 and the right track/wrong track percentage. If those improve, Hillary can defeat Jeb narrowly.
We screwed up when we nominated Obama above Hillary in 2008. If you reverse that order, Hillary would have destroyed anyone in 2008 and 2012 and now Obama would be still immensely popular and poised to follow Hillary. In open races after one party has held the White House for exactly two terms, charisma and popularity are generally very important. That didn't fully apply to 2008 because Bush was so unpopular, following Iraq and Katrina. Anybody we nominated would have cruised. Fast forward 8 years and now we are in need of personal popularity. Obama would fit better than Hillary, who has polarized opinions dating more than 20 years.
Granted, it would have been difficult to apply strategy that far ahead and along those lines, but that's the way it worked out.