General Discussion

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)

5. I think it is too early and there are too many potential variables, to prognosticate.

Thu Apr 30, 2015, 03:25 AM

Apr 2015

I will say a couple things: One, if someone had asked me to lay odds on Barack Obama in April of '07, they wouldn't have been real good. Certainly I would have said him walking away with the general was a tall, unlikely prospect, particularly against an established DC institution like John McCain.

The other thing I will say is, that although the differences may seem glaring and stark here on DU, most of the red state people who loathe Bernie Sanders for being a "Socialist from Vermont" probably don't feel all that differently about Hillary Clinton.

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If Bernie wins the Democratic nomination, how do you gauge his chances of winning the general? [View all] MrScorpio Apr 2015 OP

The Country Is Breaking At The Seams - The Time For Change Is Now cantbeserious Apr 2015 #1

You have noticed that half the country votes Republican pretty much every election? brooklynite Apr 2015 #14

And the Republicans seem to be steady voters ... JustABozoOnThisBus Apr 2015 #35

you mean half the country that even bothers to vote, votes republican. m-lekktor Apr 2015 #45

And when we had a dynamic candidate like Barack Obama, voting spiked.....to 57% brooklynite Apr 2015 #46

This message was self-deleted by its author cantbeserious Apr 2015 #18

Against the current Republican clown car, no contest. joshcryer Apr 2015 #2

if he wins the nomination i think he would win the general JI7 Apr 2015 #3

I think nomination will be the biggest challenge. Cheese Sandwich Apr 2015 #4

I think it is too early and there are too many potential variables, to prognosticate. Warren DeMontague Apr 2015 #5

Yup. Agschmid Apr 2015 #37

slim but not impossible gwheezie Apr 2015 #6

I personally like and admire Bernie but do not think that he could be viable Gothmog Apr 2015 #7

And by doing so, they prove Bernie's point. smokey nj Apr 2015 #23

Bernie may win the point but he will still lose the election Gothmog Apr 2015 #41

You don't know how much money Bernie's going to raise smokey nj Apr 2015 #42

I will be happy to be wrong on this and see Bernie raise a great deal of money Gothmog Apr 2015 #48

Depends somewhat on the GOP nominee.... Adrahil Apr 2015 #8

#3 madokie Apr 2015 #17

He would represent real change but would have the entire establishment Warren Stupidity Apr 2015 #9

Maybe 'even'. He might have a shot. A big part of the issue is the Democratic Party KittyWampus Apr 2015 #10

No chance Renew Deal Apr 2015 #11

I'm thinking McGovern 1972.....a 49 state loss leftofcool Apr 2015 #30

McGovern was running against an incumbent Art_from_Ark May 2015 #49

It's his message madokie Apr 2015 #12

I think it's really early to be able to tell gollygee Apr 2015 #13

Less than "even", but more than "not likely at all" Recursion Apr 2015 #15

Hillary will be stronger this time TBF Apr 2015 #16

I like him and will probably vote for him in the primary davidpdx Apr 2015 #19

Did you even read the question? n/t Dawgs Apr 2015 #21

Yeah I did davidpdx Apr 2015 #32

Bernie is a populist that sticks to his message. Dawgs Apr 2015 #20

Very likely. H2O Man Apr 2015 #22

Not likely. NuclearDem Apr 2015 #24

How does someone win when... Chemical Bill Apr 2015 #25

I don't see him winning the presidenncy or the nomination. hrmjustin Apr 2015 #26

He'll make mincemeat of the talking points the Rs employ... Orsino Apr 2015 #27

It depends on how many Democrats don't vote for him in the general... kentuck Apr 2015 #28

"Very Likely" fredamae Apr 2015 #29

If people GET. THEIR. ASSES. OUT. AND. VOTE. Triana Apr 2015 #31

+1 Daniel537 Apr 2015 #43

I love him, but I'm not seeing his path to victory. Starry Messenger Apr 2015 #33

One should never rule out an implosion. joshcryer May 2015 #54

Nothing can be taken for granted any more nt fadedrose May 2015 #65

It depends on how dedicated and effective we are at getting Zorra Apr 2015 #34

Depends on who the other side picks in their primary n/t JustAnotherGen Apr 2015 #36

All things being equal to what they are today? Around 25%. nt stevenleser Apr 2015 #38

It's up to Bernie to work for our votes. NCTraveler Apr 2015 #39

Senator Sanders will also get a large share of republican votes... TheProgressive Apr 2015 #40

Bernie can mobilize the Millenial vote far better than Hillary Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #44

If he can somehow get the nod he can win. PeteSelman Apr 2015 #47

If anything shows how out of touch with reality some DUers are oberliner May 2015 #50

Sanders is a top contender. joshcryer May 2015 #52

Ladbrokes lists 12 Democratic candidates with better odds oberliner May 2015 #53

It's been a day. joshcryer May 2015 #55

Get your money down while the odds are so good! oberliner May 2015 #57

I'll somewhat agree with Starry. joshcryer May 2015 #59

There are other websites where they felt this way about Ron Paul oberliner May 2015 #60

In the highly unlikely event Hillary imploded ... DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #64

I think he could win get the red out May 2015 #51

We're about to find out. Enthusiast May 2015 #56

Kick Omaha Steve May 2015 #58

I have been to this rodeo quaker bill May 2015 #61

I think he has a better chance of winning the general than winning the primary. Vinca May 2015 #62

It depends a couple of things.. fadedrose May 2015 #63