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appalachiablue

(43,960 posts)
22. Appreciate your raising the truth of what's rarely mentioned, that apart from the robotic
Thu May 21, 2015, 12:13 PM
May 2015

owners who profit, there's irreversible technological unemployment coming for many in 10-20 years. In the US, 50% unemployment is forecast over the next 20 years by Oxford Martin in their 2013 Report and by other institutions like MIT's Technology Review. Advanced technology for many occupational skills is being worked on every day around the world.
As for truck drivers, there will be human drivers in the autonomous vehicles for about 10 more years, then the industry plans to implement a 'caravan system' with one driver-engineer in the front vehicle only. So expect many displaced truck drivers and all the associated businesses brought up in the OP article.

I just posted about this topic in reply to a DU OP or comment that the TPP will allocate money to universities for displaced workers to retrain for NURSING and TRUCK DRIVING. Obviously written a while ago by corporate heads whose last concern is US labor and job security.

Retraining out of work Americans to be truck drivers is particularly absurd since AI tech for driverless vehicles is established for several years now. Also, TRUCK DRIVERS salaries are the largest cost for trucking businesses. It's not just SAFETY that driverless trucks will accomplish, it's much reduced compensation for drivers, until almost no human drivers are used, and all the more profit for cos.

*The predicted vast changes to society also bring up the important issue of what products and freight exactly will these autonomous trucks be hauling when there are so many unemployed people without money to purchase goods and services.

*"Sign of the Apocalypse as Daimler Unleashes Self Driving Trucks in Nevada? Hardly!", May 7, 2015, By Bill Howard, Extreme Tech Blog:
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/205160-sign-of-the-apocalypse-as-daimler-unleashes-self-driving-trucks-in-nevada-hardly#disqus_thread


~ NEVADA LICENSED SELF-DRIVING FREIGHTLINER TRUCK BY DAIMLER'S US SUBSIDIARY ~




USA TODAY, "Why Big Rig Trucks, Not Cars, are Best for Self-Driving Tech", May 7, 2015, By Chris Woodyard
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/05/07/self-driving-trucks-daimler/70952162/

>Snip

At the end of the article, Martin Daum, CEO of the Daimler American Unit who was interviewed said, "it will probably be 10 or 15 years before DRIVERS can actually get out from behind the wheel of a big rig while it drives itself."

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0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

There will be a truck driver in the cab of each self-driving rig. In_The_Wind May 2015 #1
Take a look at the Spain testing convoy driving without drivers. CK_John May 2015 #8
It's a long, long way off in America. DOT can't even get electronic logs in all trucks. In_The_Wind May 2015 #15
The future is coming. I bet in 10 years there are self driving trucks working daily. nt Logical May 2015 #72
Putting an end to speeding, jackknifes, rollovers and tailgating big rigs. In_The_Wind May 2015 #81
And the advent of the automobile was devastating for blacksmiths. (nt) Nye Bevan May 2015 #2
The trend is that any new jobs created need lots of skill or requires an advanced degree AZ Progressive May 2015 #4
But can we stop evolution? The2ndWheel May 2015 #17
Blacksmiths could become mechanics or body repairmen. Today, are they to retrain to be robots or leveymg May 2015 #52
+1 appalachiablue May 2015 #87
self driving trucks will be a lot safer Travis_0004 May 2015 #3
Boy! I have to admit to conflicting views on this subject. tech3149 May 2015 #5
Passenger jets fly themselves too workinclasszero May 2015 #6
Passenger jets do not fly themselves. SheilaT May 2015 #27
You seem to have missed a distinction jberryhill May 2015 #41
In what world do you live in where drivers that are "drunk or high" is commonplace? A HERETIC I AM May 2015 #49
I've never known or heard of such drunk, high, irresponsible and sleep deprived truckers. appalachiablue May 2015 #58
it won't stop there ruffburr May 2015 #7
Appreciate your raising the truth of what's rarely mentioned, that apart from the robotic appalachiablue May 2015 #22
I don't understand why this isn't obvious to people Johonny May 2015 #37
So essentially, trucks will become train-cars-on-highways. WinkyDink May 2015 #80
That occurred to me too, like a caravan or convoy of trucks, train cars, tanks, horses with appalachiablue May 2015 #88
But before they go, I hope they get there 15 dollars an hour at yeoman6987 May 2015 #31
+1. So cruel the GOP won't let people get a little money before being displaced by bots- appalachiablue May 2015 #36
The horse and buggy comeback is always a trip The2ndWheel May 2015 #9
Oh it's more then that yeoman6987 May 2015 #33
Just Like They Pay Some Farmers Not To Farm - Corporations Will Have To Pay..... global1 May 2015 #10
so were horseless carriages......and telephones...and electricity....and computers...... bowens43 May 2015 #11
I'm not sure what you're suggesting? Outlaw some technology to save jobs? Adrahil May 2015 #12
No, but the current economic-industrial model is unsustainable. DetlefK May 2015 #18
Oh, I agree, but I have no idea what to do about it. I'd be interested in hearing Krugman's ideas. Adrahil May 2015 #20
I think a universal income is a great idea. Oneironaut May 2015 #29
That money must come with zero strings attached yeoman6987 May 2015 #42
Productivity growth is down at the moment. It doesn't look like the robots are taking over anymore Chathamization May 2015 #60
Should we as a species aspire to nothing more ZX86 May 2015 #92
IMO Mr Dixon May 2015 #13
Mandatory repost Bosonic May 2015 #14
Yep they will whatthehey May 2015 #16
Techies love to trot out the blacksmiths and buggy whip makers, but... Rochester May 2015 #19
The implications are... most troubling. DetlefK May 2015 #23
Well, I'd love to hear your ideas. Adrahil May 2015 #24
+100. They don't ask and they don't care. Machine-Tech worship and fantasy isn't my art. appalachiablue May 2015 #25
Really you all should read Karl Marx davekriss May 2015 #53
Well, let's hear your ideas! Adrahil May 2015 #69
Oops I didn't mean the Marxist post to fall under you. :) davekriss May 2015 #57
You can't stop technology. Nor should we. nt Logical May 2015 #73
I have been saying this about both the TPP and Social Welfare Spending John_Doe80004 May 2015 #21
I hope that you do understand kentauros May 2015 #26
It didn't do that...before The2ndWheel May 2015 #30
In the context of this thread, kentauros May 2015 #34
Transition periods are narrowing from the horse and buggy days. haele May 2015 #40
And yet, it's still going to take time, kentauros May 2015 #46
Not only that, but they may only be economical (at first) for long-haul rides Recursion May 2015 #65
Good point. kentauros May 2015 #70
Few people will bother to own a self-driving car Recursion May 2015 #71
That sounds more like the way it'll work. kentauros May 2015 #77
That's the idea. I'm sure there will still be enthusiasts Recursion May 2015 #78
There will always be "gear heads" kentauros May 2015 #79
I can even predict the nostalgic op-eds about the kids who don't know about driving around aimlessly Recursion May 2015 #84
And revolutionary... Oneironaut May 2015 #28
Sci Fi 1939 May 2015 #35
What new jobs? historylovr May 2015 #39
The very wealthy will always need menials... malthaussen May 2015 #48
Yep. bravenak May 2015 #51
Ah, yes. Good point. historylovr May 2015 #61
Lots of renewable energy plants are hiring. So is biotech. So are a lot of small farms Recursion May 2015 #66
I take it your username is ironic mythology May 2015 #86
Yeah. Sure. historylovr May 2015 #91
Let me know when the politicians become obsolete Fumesucker May 2015 #68
Those big rigs have bedrooms. Truck drivers aren't checking into the Motel 6. Atman May 2015 #32
Yep, exactly. B2G May 2015 #45
Sometimes it's the only way to keep a family together. Eleanors38 May 2015 #56
I find your definition of bedroom mildly amusing. cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #90
Local buggywhips 489 Oktober May 2015 #38
It's simple. We bring back horses for the post office. Taitertots May 2015 #43
Truck drivers are not 'unskilled' B2G May 2015 #44
They will. And Taxi's too. Used to have elevator operators too. Technology waits for no one. nt Logical May 2015 #74
Elevators operate in a defined space/location, vehicles don't bigbrother05 May 2015 #82
You are short sighted on how technology advances. And landing a plane is much harder than driving. n Logical May 2015 #109
It's basically no longer in our hands then The2ndWheel May 2015 #83
I always have questions for Doom and Gloom Disguised as Optimism threads such as this. HughBeaumont May 2015 #47
Biotech and renewables are probably a good guess, along with "small ag" Recursion May 2015 #63
I think I'm in the minority here thinking that killing jobs is good. hunter May 2015 #50
+1. A social dividend makes higher unemployment a great thing Recursion May 2015 #64
Take a look at any pulp advertising paper like the Greensheet... Eleanors38 May 2015 #54
people can hack networks with a cellphone DiverDave May 2015 #55
One thing a machine will never be able to do is anticipate. cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #59
Wow, how short sighted...... Logical May 2015 #75
I didn't say they wouldn't be safe. My post WAS about driver error. cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #76
Humans can't anticipate either, we guess, and I would actually think that a computer... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #93
If humans can't anticipate; from whence does the word originate? cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #95
We make guesses, some are educated, many are not, but the point is that I don't... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #96
"Anticipation" is basically programming, be it in a human brain or a silicon one. kentauros May 2015 #108
What's your opinion on wheat threshing machines? (nt) Recursion May 2015 #62
1. Just have a look at the OP. 2. Your premise is faulty. DetlefK May 2015 #67
There will still be "drivers" on these trucks. greendog May 2015 #85
Initially yes, but I would imagine that would only be transitional. Humanist_Activist May 2015 #89
Driverless Trucks Taking Over At California Ports FrodosPet May 2015 #94
This makes sense for first usage of autonomous trucks(and possibly cars), in environment where.... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #98
on the bright side, maybe fewer people will get killed n/t librechik May 2015 #97
This is only the beginning, and I don't think the world economy is equipped to handle it at this... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #99
And the techies don't care because they look down the rest of society anyway AZ Progressive May 2015 #101
That's actually completely untrue, I am one of those techies, and we are talking about... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #103
I'm afraid you are correct librechik May 2015 #110
It could be a golden opportunity rather than something to fear, but only if governments, culture... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #111
This at the very least is another method of reducing the bargaining power of workers AZ Progressive May 2015 #100
Few people stop to think how automating everything will change Agnosticsherbet May 2015 #102
If it leads to more efficiency and, with the right public policies, a better standard of living... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #104
If, and only if, it leads to better public policy. Agnosticsherbet May 2015 #106
Well, first step is to get Republicans out of office, they hate any public policies that... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #107
That second paragraph is the multiplier effect in a nutshell JonLP24 May 2015 #105
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