General Discussion

kentauros

(29,414 posts)

34. In the context of this thread,

Thu May 21, 2015, 02:10 PM

May 2015

I still feel the transition will be slow. Regular, human-driven rigs are insanely expensive. How much more will a self-driving rig cost? Not to mention the fact that you likely will have to buy a self-driving rig that was built that way, versus modifying an existing rig. It doesn't matter how much the technology to make it self-driving may go down in price. You'll still have to either spend the cost of a full and new rig for each human-driven rig you want to replace, or spend a hefty amount to modify an existing rig, if that's even possible.

No matter how you may look at all game-changing technology overall, each type has different transition periods. Self-driving rigs are going to take longer to displace human-driven versions due to costs. It's not really comparable to any other game-changer.

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Self-driving trucks will be job-killers. [View all] DetlefK May 2015 OP

There will be a truck driver in the cab of each self-driving rig. In_The_Wind May 2015 #1

Take a look at the Spain testing convoy driving without drivers. CK_John May 2015 #8

It's a long, long way off in America. DOT can't even get electronic logs in all trucks. In_The_Wind May 2015 #15

The future is coming. I bet in 10 years there are self driving trucks working daily. nt Logical May 2015 #72

Putting an end to speeding, jackknifes, rollovers and tailgating big rigs. In_The_Wind May 2015 #81

And the advent of the automobile was devastating for blacksmiths. (nt) Nye Bevan May 2015 #2

The trend is that any new jobs created need lots of skill or requires an advanced degree AZ Progressive May 2015 #4

But can we stop evolution? The2ndWheel May 2015 #17

Blacksmiths could become mechanics or body repairmen. Today, are they to retrain to be robots or leveymg May 2015 #52

+1 appalachiablue May 2015 #87

self driving trucks will be a lot safer Travis_0004 May 2015 #3

Boy! I have to admit to conflicting views on this subject. tech3149 May 2015 #5

Passenger jets fly themselves too workinclasszero May 2015 #6

Passenger jets do not fly themselves. SheilaT May 2015 #27

You seem to have missed a distinction jberryhill May 2015 #41

In what world do you live in where drivers that are "drunk or high" is commonplace? A HERETIC I AM May 2015 #49

I've never known or heard of such drunk, high, irresponsible and sleep deprived truckers. appalachiablue May 2015 #58

it won't stop there ruffburr May 2015 #7

Appreciate your raising the truth of what's rarely mentioned, that apart from the robotic appalachiablue May 2015 #22

I don't understand why this isn't obvious to people Johonny May 2015 #37

So essentially, trucks will become train-cars-on-highways. WinkyDink May 2015 #80

That occurred to me too, like a caravan or convoy of trucks, train cars, tanks, horses with appalachiablue May 2015 #88

But before they go, I hope they get there 15 dollars an hour at yeoman6987 May 2015 #31

+1. So cruel the GOP won't let people get a little money before being displaced by bots- appalachiablue May 2015 #36

The horse and buggy comeback is always a trip The2ndWheel May 2015 #9

Oh it's more then that yeoman6987 May 2015 #33

Just Like They Pay Some Farmers Not To Farm - Corporations Will Have To Pay..... global1 May 2015 #10

so were horseless carriages......and telephones...and electricity....and computers...... bowens43 May 2015 #11

I'm not sure what you're suggesting? Outlaw some technology to save jobs? Adrahil May 2015 #12

No, but the current economic-industrial model is unsustainable. DetlefK May 2015 #18

Oh, I agree, but I have no idea what to do about it. I'd be interested in hearing Krugman's ideas. Adrahil May 2015 #20

I think a universal income is a great idea. Oneironaut May 2015 #29

That money must come with zero strings attached yeoman6987 May 2015 #42

Productivity growth is down at the moment. It doesn't look like the robots are taking over anymore Chathamization May 2015 #60

Should we as a species aspire to nothing more ZX86 May 2015 #92

IMO Mr Dixon May 2015 #13

Mandatory repost Bosonic May 2015 #14

Yep they will whatthehey May 2015 #16

Techies love to trot out the blacksmiths and buggy whip makers, but... Rochester May 2015 #19

The implications are... most troubling. DetlefK May 2015 #23

Well, I'd love to hear your ideas. Adrahil May 2015 #24

+100. They don't ask and they don't care. Machine-Tech worship and fantasy isn't my art. appalachiablue May 2015 #25

Really you all should read Karl Marx davekriss May 2015 #53

Well, let's hear your ideas! Adrahil May 2015 #69

Oops I didn't mean the Marxist post to fall under you. :) davekriss May 2015 #57

You can't stop technology. Nor should we. nt Logical May 2015 #73

I have been saying this about both the TPP and Social Welfare Spending John_Doe80004 May 2015 #21

I hope that you do understand kentauros May 2015 #26

It didn't do that...before The2ndWheel May 2015 #30

In the context of this thread, kentauros May 2015 #34

Transition periods are narrowing from the horse and buggy days. haele May 2015 #40

And yet, it's still going to take time, kentauros May 2015 #46

Not only that, but they may only be economical (at first) for long-haul rides Recursion May 2015 #65

Good point. kentauros May 2015 #70

Few people will bother to own a self-driving car Recursion May 2015 #71

That sounds more like the way it'll work. kentauros May 2015 #77

That's the idea. I'm sure there will still be enthusiasts Recursion May 2015 #78

There will always be "gear heads" kentauros May 2015 #79

I can even predict the nostalgic op-eds about the kids who don't know about driving around aimlessly Recursion May 2015 #84

And revolutionary... Oneironaut May 2015 #28

Sci Fi 1939 May 2015 #35

What new jobs? historylovr May 2015 #39

The very wealthy will always need menials... malthaussen May 2015 #48

Yep. bravenak May 2015 #51

Ah, yes. Good point. historylovr May 2015 #61

Lots of renewable energy plants are hiring. So is biotech. So are a lot of small farms Recursion May 2015 #66

I take it your username is ironic mythology May 2015 #86

Yeah. Sure. historylovr May 2015 #91

Let me know when the politicians become obsolete Fumesucker May 2015 #68

Those big rigs have bedrooms. Truck drivers aren't checking into the Motel 6. Atman May 2015 #32

Yep, exactly. B2G May 2015 #45

Sometimes it's the only way to keep a family together. Eleanors38 May 2015 #56

I find your definition of bedroom mildly amusing. cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #90

Local buggywhips 489 Oktober May 2015 #38

It's simple. We bring back horses for the post office. Taitertots May 2015 #43

Truck drivers are not 'unskilled' B2G May 2015 #44

They will. And Taxi's too. Used to have elevator operators too. Technology waits for no one. nt Logical May 2015 #74

Elevators operate in a defined space/location, vehicles don't bigbrother05 May 2015 #82

You are short sighted on how technology advances. And landing a plane is much harder than driving. n Logical May 2015 #109

It's basically no longer in our hands then The2ndWheel May 2015 #83

I always have questions for Doom and Gloom Disguised as Optimism threads such as this. HughBeaumont May 2015 #47

Biotech and renewables are probably a good guess, along with "small ag" Recursion May 2015 #63

I think I'm in the minority here thinking that killing jobs is good. hunter May 2015 #50

+1. A social dividend makes higher unemployment a great thing Recursion May 2015 #64

Take a look at any pulp advertising paper like the Greensheet... Eleanors38 May 2015 #54

people can hack networks with a cellphone DiverDave May 2015 #55

One thing a machine will never be able to do is anticipate. cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #59

Wow, how short sighted...... Logical May 2015 #75

I didn't say they wouldn't be safe. My post WAS about driver error. cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #76

Humans can't anticipate either, we guess, and I would actually think that a computer... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #93

If humans can't anticipate; from whence does the word originate? cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #95

We make guesses, some are educated, many are not, but the point is that I don't... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #96

"Anticipation" is basically programming, be it in a human brain or a silicon one. kentauros May 2015 #108

What's your opinion on wheat threshing machines? (nt) Recursion May 2015 #62

1. Just have a look at the OP. 2. Your premise is faulty. DetlefK May 2015 #67

There will still be "drivers" on these trucks. greendog May 2015 #85

Initially yes, but I would imagine that would only be transitional. Humanist_Activist May 2015 #89

Driverless Trucks Taking Over At California Ports FrodosPet May 2015 #94

This makes sense for first usage of autonomous trucks(and possibly cars), in environment where.... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #98

on the bright side, maybe fewer people will get killed n/t librechik May 2015 #97

This is only the beginning, and I don't think the world economy is equipped to handle it at this... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #99

And the techies don't care because they look down the rest of society anyway AZ Progressive May 2015 #101

That's actually completely untrue, I am one of those techies, and we are talking about... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #103

I'm afraid you are correct librechik May 2015 #110

It could be a golden opportunity rather than something to fear, but only if governments, culture... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #111

This at the very least is another method of reducing the bargaining power of workers AZ Progressive May 2015 #100

Few people stop to think how automating everything will change Agnosticsherbet May 2015 #102

If it leads to more efficiency and, with the right public policies, a better standard of living... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #104

If, and only if, it leads to better public policy. Agnosticsherbet May 2015 #106

Well, first step is to get Republicans out of office, they hate any public policies that... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #107

That second paragraph is the multiplier effect in a nutshell JonLP24 May 2015 #105