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HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
18. You really think delegates to the WI dem convention voted for Walker? Really?
Mon Jun 8, 2015, 08:13 AM
Jun 2015

I find that to be a non sequitur, and an attempt to find some way to dismiss the result using an irrational substitution of an unrelated topic, i.e. application of a distraction, iow, a classic red-herring fallacy.

If you understood the limits of the poll you'd understand it's actually MUCH easier and much more rational to simply see the real limits of any generalizing of these poll results.

It's not a poll of a general cross section of WI voters. It's not a scientific poll undertaken with care to capture a random and representative cross-section. It's a voluntary poll of Dem activists at a convention, mostly intended to stimulate blog readers and initiate comments at the pollers website, pretty much like polls in GD. The result, turns out to be pretty similar to what such polls have looked like in GD.

The most general interpretation of this poll suggests only that a candidate not even included in the previous years convention straw poll can have a strong showing among convention attendees. IOW results of convention polls are dynamic and can have great variability between years.

A less general but pointed interpretation is that among dem activists who participated in the poll, Sanders had a strong following, a following much stronger than what shows up in national polling of dem leaning voters or the general population.

A more speculative interpretation, but probably one that is correct in its leaning, would be that among dem activists who participated in the poll, there is significant interest in a candidate that isn't viewed to be like the establishment dems who ran against and who lost to Walker.

I don't think any interpretation that approaches a reflection of reality would suggest that the straw poll is an indication of preference among convention attending dems who behaved in a manner that supported Walker's elections. This poll very simply doesn't incorporate opinions from and does not reflect Walker/anti-union preference among WI's republican leaning voters.

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Straw polls definitely foretell the primaries and caucuses. MohRokTah Jun 2015 #1
LOL, getting nervous. I don't blame you! nt Logical Jun 2015 #5
That was fast. Octafish Jun 2015 #2
The delegates polled are people who are active and plugged in to politics and political media HereSince1628 Jun 2015 #8
Yep... Funny How John Nichols And That Conservative Rag, 'The Nation', Are Easily Dismissed... WillyT Jun 2015 #11
This message was self-deleted by its author WillyT Jun 2015 #12
And 2/3 of them expressed their opinion by not participating... brooklynite Jun 2015 #19
Subsets are common in polling. The issue really isn't that everyone didn't participate HereSince1628 Jun 2015 #22
And so the denial begins... Kalidurga Jun 2015 #3
Yep, look at the posts below..... peacebird Jun 2015 #9
Has anyone explained why 2/3s of the attendees didn't vote? nt DURHAM D Jun 2015 #4
Somebody needs to update these 500 out of 5,750,000 about who is actually running. onehandle Jun 2015 #6
Joe Walsh Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Jun 2015 #7
Well, everybody knows that The Nation is a right-wing rag on the Koch Bros payroll. Tierra_y_Libertad Jun 2015 #10
GMTA !!! WillyT Jun 2015 #13
Kick !!! WillyT Jun 2015 #14
This message was self-deleted by its author 1000words Jun 2015 #15
Interesting Sheepshank Jun 2015 #16
You Are... Forgiven... WillyT Jun 2015 #17
You really think delegates to the WI dem convention voted for Walker? Really? HereSince1628 Jun 2015 #18
while everything you said makes sense on paper or in theory.... Sheepshank Jun 2015 #20
What's theoretical? Your comment is built around a red-herring HereSince1628 Jun 2015 #21
There was nothing theoretical about Walker and his office Sheepshank Jun 2015 #23
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