538: "We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate" [View all]

[Attorney in Texas]

Micah Cohen:

Carly Fiorina. She’s sitting with an 8 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee — would you buy or sell her stock?

Harry Enten:

I’d sell. Let me be the old curmudgeon in this group; I continue to believe that a traditional candidate will emerge as the ultimate nominee. I believe her record at HP will eventually bring her down, among other things. That said, I wouldn’t put her chance near 0. Perhaps closer to 3-5 percent. Better than Trump.... Let me point out a few things: 1. I think we need to realize that this is still September. Other more establishment candidates did very well last night. 2. Fiorina self-funded somewhat in 2010. Not exactly someone who relied on the traditional infrastructure.

Nate Silver:

Yay, an actual disagreement! I’d at least hold Fiorina’s stock at 8 percent, and maybe buy ... hold is totally an option ... the thing about Fiorina is that it seems a little off to classify her as an insurgent/outsider. If you’re the CEO of a major company like HP, you’re a part of the establishment. Unless you’re a real weirdo. And if you run for Senate as a Republican in 2010, and run as a surrogate for a bunch of Republican candidates, you’re part of the ​*political*​ establishment too.

Simone Landon:

Who’s Walker? Was he even there last night?

Enten:

Buy. At 4 percent? I’d buy. ... His debate performance was a ball of meh, but he’s the governor of a fairly large bluish-tint state. He won election three times in four years. He’s conservative.

Silver:

Yeah, it’s a buy at 4 percent....his favorability ratings are pretty good and he has “enough” money to survive for a while.... I’m not saying that his stock hasn’t diminished. But I think there’s been an overreaction. A 25-to-1 shot? Sure. I’ll take a few of those tickets.

Cohen:

Jeb Bush at 39 percent: buy/sell/hold?

Enten:

Selling ... 39 percent is way too high.... {Fair price is} somewhere between 20-30 percent. His super PAC still has a ton of money. He leads the endorsement race (if barely). He’s ahead of most of the other traditional candidates in the polls (for whatever that is worth). And I don’t think he is too moderate for the party at this point.

Silver:

Yeah, sell. I don’t really get why he’s at 39 percent. ... {Fair price is} 25 percent? 30 percent?

Cohen:

THE DONALD: 13 percent. Buy/sell/hold?

Enten:

Sell.

Landon:

we all sell on The Donald