Gingrich win almost certainly be the nominee. The calendar simply favors Newt over Romney.

[Bucky]

3. I know that's the conventional wisdom. But I don't see Paul winning the Deep South.

Again, the big headline makers are gonna be South Carolina and Florida. Those are still strongly Newtland.

Based on the first three notMitts, we're expecting Gingrich's numbers to fall away any minute now. It's been fun, but the fact of the calendar means eventually the roller coaster ride is gonna end. I didn't believe it before this "who's the notMitt of the month" game began, but today I'm certain the Republicans are not going to nominate Romney. They don't trust him and he can't move his acceptability rate north of 25%. Maybe when it's down to a two-man that number moves up to 35%, but man is not nominateable.

And Gingrich won't fall like Perry & Cain did. Gingrich is different. He's a foot-shooter, to be sure. But he has the depth of understanding and the skills at speaking to the Republicans' so-called issues to stay in the game, even when his serial fuck ups come to light. He's still leading in Florida, which after Florida votes on the 31st will be the big story of the campaign.

Republican voters really don't have anywhere else to go. It's too late to put together a new candidacy, be it for Jeb Bush or for Mitch Daniels or for... uh, I can't really think of any other possibles. Republicans never have a deep bench for alpha male--I think they miss the days of God annointing a monarch to command the people.

Ron Paul simply isn't going to win any big states or any big votes. A ground game doesn't matter that much in a primary state and it matters much less for Republicans than it does for Democrats. It can win a candidate states like Iowa & New Hampshire, where each farmer meets each candidate several times. But in bigger states like SC & FL, it's wholesale politics. Paul's core message of American withdrawal from global dominance is simply not going to resonate with the suburban voters in the South and Midwest. He might do okay in Maine and Minnesota's caucuses, but Maine is always ignored by the press and by Super Tuesday, which is all primaries, he's going to be back to his old story of getting 5-15% in every primary state.

Paul is fun, but he's fringe. He'll never be a player except on the internet. His message sounds too much like surrender. Grown ups won't vote for him.