Gingrich win almost certainly be the nominee. The calendar simply favors Newt over Romney.

[starroute]

5. You assume there could ever be a "disciplined" Newt

I suspect Newt is simply too fond of the sound of his own voice to shut up when anybody else would realize they were getting into dangerous territory. He also has nothing like an organized campaign, as shown by his failure to qualify in Virginia. Remember that Newt has never previously run for national or even state office, and his only campaign experience is as a Congressman from Georgia.

On the other hand, your arguments about the Republicans being in desperate need of a candidate they can coalesce around have a certain plausibility. You'll know if the GOP establishment has decided Newt's the one, because you'll suddenly see money being poured into his campaign and seasoned operatives and fundraisers being sent in to take control. But as far as I know, the Karl Rove types are still pushing for Romney.

There are also a few more subjective factors. One is that Newt just plain isn't very telegenic. He's ugly and pompous and his wife is positively reptilian. And his age could also be a factor -- he'll be 69 in June -- either in terms of voter perceptions that he's out of touch or as affecting his stamina to maintain an extended primary campaign.