Anyone think Republicans are winning the Presidency?

[Agnosticsherbet]

82. At the end of a two term Democratic President, Republicans have an advantage.

The third term curse is well documented, and for that reason I see 2016 as Republicans to lose.

For a while, I thought the ascendancy of candidates like Trump and Cruz to be proof they are trying to lose, that people frightened of them will turn out against Republicans. I've come to the conclusion that people frightened of their extremism are more likely to sit out the election.

The same goes for the number of people who claim that if "Candidate X doesn't get elected I won't vote."

Finally, if Iowa is predictive of anything, it is that the excitement for Republicans was far more pronounced than for Democrats. Their record turn out led to having both their first and second place candidates receiving more votes than any other winning candidate won in an Iowa Caucus before. If we continue to see Republican Primary turnout significantly higher than Democrats, it will be a very bad sign pointing towards November that says, "Beyond this point there be monsters."

Do I think Republicans can win. Yes, I do. The difference will hinge on turnout.

In November, I will vote to elect the best possible government from the choices given me by the Primary voters. I hope we turn out in big enough numbers to keep the real monsters in their place.

I will not be surprised if we don't.