Gingrich win almost certainly be the nominee. The calendar simply favors Newt over Romney.

[onenote]

13. Or maybe not

I really enjoy predictions like this. Just like I enjoyed predictions that were prevalent here on DU in the spring declaring that if Perry got in the race he was a shoo-in. Or that Bachmann was going to get the nomination. Or Jeb Bush.

I don't pretend to know how it will play out, but my guess is that it won't be along the lines the OP describes. My take on the situation is that Gingrich, who went from 40 percent support among repubs to around 25 percent in a matter of a couple of weeks, will have trouble getting back a lot of the support he lost. Not that it will necesssarily go to Romney, at least initially. Perry, Bachmann, and Paul probably will pick up bits and pieces, but not enough to make them viable. So it will be a two man race. The thing is that while Gingrich and Romney are likely to split some of those early states, my guess (and its just a guess) is that his margins will not be 25 percent in Florida and South Carolina -- it may be closer to half that amount.

Ultimately, Gingrich faces two hurdles that could prove insurmountable. First, he has no money and the repub establishment is inclined to start ponying up for him. Romney has millions of dollars available to him going forward over the next six weeks; Gingrich has thousands. In TV-rich states, that's a problem for Gingrich. Second, Paul, Bachmann, and Perry don't like Gingrich and they're not going to throw their support to him. On the other hand, they will be under enormous pressure to throw their support to Romney. They may not like doing it and some may resist, but not all of them and that will further hamstring Gingrich and Romney, having made a backroom promise to name a tea partier as his running mate, will ultimately prevail.

Okay, so that's my version. Chances are its no more accurate that the OP's version -- what happens will probably have elements of both versions, but won't play out as either of us have described. Certainly everything about this political season supports the conclusion that most predictions will have to be swallowed.

It should be interesting to watch.