http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating
58.2% unfavorable
36.5% favorable
Trump is ONLY winning their nomination because it is him against the rest of the candidates. If either Cruz or Rubio dropped out, he'd be toast. Ted and Marco are vying for the same base (As is Kasich and Carson). If it weren't for the Trump/everyone else dynamic he'd be behind.
Let's look at the %'s of his support:
Iowa he lost with only 24%
New Hampshire he won, but with only 35%
South Carolina he won, but with only 32%
Nevada he won, but with 45%
Alaska he lost with only 33%
Alabama 43%
Arkansas 32%
Georgia 38%
Massachusetts: 49%
Minnesota Rubio won and Trump pulled 21%
Oklahoma Cruz won and trump pulled 28%
Tennessee Trump won with 39%
Texas Cruz won, and trump only pulled 27%
Vermont 33%
Virginia 35%
To me this very accurately reflects his ACTUAL favorable rating with Republicans. Only 3 states has he broken 40%, and has been below 30% in 2 of them.
If you were to combine Rubio/Cruz in most, he would be FAR behind now, and I fully expect when one of them drops out they will not endorse Trump, they'll endorse the other establishment one and take their delegates with them.
Trump is currently in the lead with 319 delegates, but if you just combine Rubio/Cruz that's 336 delegates.
Maybe it's the optimist in me, but I fully believe either of our candidates will absolutely TROUNCE Trump in a general run.
Of the states that have gone so far, only a few of them really mater (electoral college wise) in the general.
Iowa is a swing state - it went to Cruz.
Virginia is a blue leaning swing state - It went to trump but with only 34%. I honestly can't imagine Virginia going Trump over either of our candidates.
The 2 "king maker" giants of the swing votes are still to be done yet. Ohio and Florida will be huge tells.
I am 100% with you though about how important that he is NOT the next POTUS. Good god, especially if we don't get the Senate back as well.. ACA is gone and my marriage will likely be voided, huge numbers of families will be broken up and deportations will become a human rights catastrophe... just to name the first few.
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