Gingrich win almost certainly be the nominee. The calendar simply favors Newt over Romney.

[customerserviceguy]

14. I'm with you through the first two months except for a couple of things

Paul is overestimated, and the fundies think that libertarian equals libertine, especially when you explain Paul's stand on drugs to them. I do think it possible that he will perhaps go over ten percent in Florida, just because that state is a mixed up bag of people from elsewhere, who tend to take their political views along with them when they retire. Arizona may go over a bit stronger for Mitt than you think, it has a sizable number of Mormons in it, and I do think Romney will play his "home state" card in Michigan (as he will in Massachusetts and Utah), and will do well there.

Now as for Super Tuesday and beyond, I disagree with you. I can see Romney winning Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, and possibly Texas, especially if Perry has endorsed him by that point (admittedly, that one's a long shot, given their enmity so far). If I'm right, then he will continue to look viable, and will soldier on.

Also, you seem to have dismissed the possibility of a third party candidacy by Paul. If he does any better this year than he did in 2008, his minions may rally for him to take that one last shot at the White House, and knowing that it could derail either Gingrich or Romney from winning, he just might do it out of spite.