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Whiskeytide

(4,657 posts)
15. i just don't see Trump being able to compete in the GE...
Tue May 3, 2016, 10:09 AM
May 2016

He has a rabid base among republicans and right leaning independents. But it stops there. He will win the deep red states on the GE. The Dem nominee will win the deeply blue states. If you assume each swing state is approx 50/50 right/left, Trump will get his half of the right (25% of the total), and a % of the remaining 25% that can tolerate him. The Dem nominee will get their 25% of the left block, plus a % of the remainder.

So the question really comes down to whether the supporters of the primary losers in each party rally to the winner. As contentious as the Dem primary has been, I simply can't see the republicans rallying to Trump as strongly as the Dems will rally to either Clinton or Sanders. There is a genuine fear/hatred between the republican supporters, and that won't go away during the convention or in the months leading up to the GE.

I know this is a simplistic view, but I think overall it's predictive. They just will not be able to muster the numbers - especially among women and minorities.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Agreed. Buzz Clik May 2016 #1
I don't want a religious fanatic to be nominated for the God President of the United States. Agnosticsherbet May 2016 #2
Bush used the religious right like a sex toy. DJ13 May 2016 #7
I think she would beat either edhopper May 2016 #3
I agree - if I were a Republican, I would be much more embarrassed by Trump than Cruz Midwestern Democrat May 2016 #8
Cruz has legitimate credentials? Wounded Bear May 2016 #10
As a sitting Senator edhopper May 2016 #12
Interesting thought... Wounded Bear May 2016 #16
You don't think he is qualified edhopper May 2016 #22
Trump the Rump has a foul mouth, Cruz is just foul. I did not like what I read when he ran for Thinkingabout May 2016 #4
+1000 many here don't understand we want trump! Nt Logical May 2016 #5
Cruz has no chance of being nominated either ProudToBeBlueInRhody May 2016 #6
I think this is something that both sides of DU can agree on. Scootaloo May 2016 #9
Cruz probably has an answer to the three letter question greymattermom May 2016 #11
Are you serious? UtahJosh May 2016 #13
Trump will have fun with Clinton moonbabygo May 2016 #14
i just don't see Trump being able to compete in the GE... Whiskeytide May 2016 #15
Frankly, that's bullshit FLPanhandle May 2016 #19
Rock, Paper, Scissors. Gidney N Cloyd May 2016 #21
Cruz is infinitely worse!!! LostOne4Ever May 2016 #17
+1000 FLPanhandle May 2016 #18
You're Exaggerating ProfessorGAC May 2016 #20
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