Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Peace Patriot

(24,010 posts)
35. I don't think she can. Here's why
Thu May 5, 2016, 02:44 AM
May 2016

Look at her numbers vs Trump. She even LOSES to Trump in one poll (Rasmussen).

Recent matchup polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Now look at Bernie Sanders vs Trump. He beats Trump by TWICE the margins that Clinton beats Trump, in these recent polls, and he's been doing this for 4 to 5 months now. (I've been following those polls.)

Further, three of Clinton's numbers are within, or not far from, the margin of error. So, while Sanders demolishes Trump, Clinton has an uphill battle and many handicaps, including very bad trustworthy and favorability numbers, and very bad "momentum" curves (the more people are exposed to her, the less they like her--whereas Sanders has the opposite effect). Trump's favorability is also low, but he has something going for him that I don't think many analysts have yet perceived, and it is this: vs Clinton, Trump looks like the rebel to many people.

I'm working class and have many working class friends and acquaintances, and they despise Clinton and admire Trump for the very reason that he is unpredictable and irreverent and beholden only to himself (a self-made man). They view Clinton as the corrupt establishment that oppresses them, but not Trump. He is, maybe, what they aspire to be? Rich enough so that no one can control them?

And here is a fascinating fact: One of these acquaintances said to me that she would love a Trump/Sanders ticket!

Go figure.

But what this may mean is that, if Sanders is our nominee, he can get such voters to think more seriously about the issues, and understand how much better his New Deal-platform would be for them, than anything Trump has to offer. SOMETHING Sanders has said, that has gotten through to this acquaintance, has caused her to view Sanders so favorably that she would want him as Trump's VP. (Trump is her first choice.) Sounds crazy, but to her it wasn't. To her it was logical. Why?

Clinton, and the entire Democratic Party establishment, and the Corrupt Media have all underestimated (or haven't even noticed) the rebellion that has been boiling beneath the surface of this country for a very long time. If we nominate Clinton, we will not only lose leadership of that rebellion, we will GIVE the leadership of it to Trump! It will become a fascist rather than a democratic, New Deal rebellion. If we nominate Sanders, the rebellious energy is OURS and will go in a very positive direction, toward substantive and long overdue reform, and a better deal for everybody.

One more thing: The independent voters are the key to the General Election. Clinton can't draw them. Sanders does and will. The Dem primaries have been too stacked and too exclusive to reflect this reality. Clinton has focused all her attention on a narrow base within the Democratic Party, which is not the majority party any more. The independents are the majority party. And they overwhelmingly dislike Clinton and won't be herded. Some are attracted by Trump's rebel-ness. But many more respond to Sanders' thoughtful analysis and agenda, as the polls cited above show, and as polls have consistently shown for many months. We are NOT getting an accurate picture of the electorate in the Dem primaries. There are many progressives, now, who are outside of the Democratic Party.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

So how does Hillary beat Trump? [View all] craigmatic May 2016 OP
there is no way yourpaljoey May 2016 #1
That's what thay said about him winning the nomination. I didn't even mention craigmatic May 2016 #4
This is wearing me down... :) yourpaljoey May 2016 #6
She doesn't. Fundamentally, the electorate didn't want Jeb Bush and they don't want another Clinton! Chasstev365 May 2016 #2
She keeps talking about issues and let him be the buffoon he is nini May 2016 #3
If she only talks about issues she becomes Dukakis. At a certain point she has to address him. craigmatic May 2016 #7
Is he still alive? Is it too late for him to jump in? Just curious. nt silvershadow May 2016 #37
Not everyone =/= No one FrodosPet May 2016 #10
bell curve. there is a hell a lot more stupid out there he can get to vote. SHE IS BORING! pansypoo53219 May 2016 #31
There is no way Hillary can come off as genuine and trustworthy. That she is neither of those... ChisolmTrailDem May 2016 #5
Easily! Trump has no idea what is in store for him. leftofcool May 2016 #8
They can suppress turn out with voter ID laws and a hideously negative campaign. craigmatic May 2016 #11
Well Trump has plenty of support here on DU so there is that. leftofcool May 2016 #12
Actually BlindTiresias May 2016 #33
A lot of people like blacks and latinos fucking hate him ProudToBeBlueInRhody May 2016 #9
+ most women + the educated + gays + muslims + asians + south asians La Lioness Priyanka May 2016 #13
No, he will not win majorities in those constituencies, but he is not as unpopular as we want to... FrodosPet May 2016 #14
hire a team of psychiatrists to advise how to push his buttons Skittles May 2016 #15
Her only chance is to convince independents that trump is far worse than her. BillZBubb May 2016 #16
Today you had a bunch of mind you, bored reporters, playing with the map nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #17
I think she should ignore him. He's terrified of being ignored. She should smile and be presidential lindysalsagal May 2016 #18
By relying on Trump's continuing to act like an asshole n/t eridani May 2016 #19
Bingo! fred v May 2016 #21
But there is still the possibility that he might clean up his act eridani May 2016 #23
This is Trump we're talking about fred v May 2016 #24
Hopefully, it will stay that way n/t eridani May 2016 #26
How does she NOT? fred v May 2016 #20
Just show up. egduj May 2016 #22
Idiotic attitude BlindTiresias May 2016 #34
GOTV fishwax May 2016 #25
Stop the negativity Liberal_in_LA May 2016 #27
Concede to Bernie. CentralMass May 2016 #28
With votes. lovemydog May 2016 #29
Hillary apologizes? merrily May 2016 #30
Easily Albertoo May 2016 #32
I don't think she can. Here's why Peace Patriot May 2016 #35
Like this: auntpurl May 2016 #36
Amen! eom BlueMTexpat May 2016 #38
By offering voters a choice. We can't beat him at demagoguery and will lose if we try. pampango May 2016 #39
She already messed up in her comments about coal. greymattermom May 2016 #40
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»So how does Hillary beat ...»Reply #35