Someone please reassure me

[basselope]

41. Its very likely he wins.. with a couple of caveats.

Caveat #1) IF a 3rd party candidate comes along to split the anti-establishment vote.
Caveat #2) The Senate continues to sit on its hands with the SC seat (which I don' think they will do), b/c that would be a strong wedge issue for Clinton.

Barring one of those 2 things. Trump is more likely to win than not for a few reason.

The GOP has spent the last 8 years improving their voter suppression strategy in key swing states. It takes overwhelming and dedicated voter turnout to overcome that. I don't see that turnout happening with an establishment candidate.

Trump has the ultimate play on Clinton. He can show she is a bought and paid for politician, b/c he has the receipts to prove it. That will come out in the debates and be a focus of his campaign.

Finally.. the October surprise will be the release of video of Clinton's speeches to Wall Street, which will further depress democratic base turnout.

Clinton is already making the mistake of running to the middle turning this election into establishment vs anti-establishment and its a battle the establishment can't win.