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pnwmom

(110,226 posts)

10. Sometimes random samples just are off. It's difficult to know how accurate party registration

Reply to cali (Reply #9)

Tue May 10, 2016, 07:09 AM

May 2016

numbers are anyway, because they change over time, and with different elections -- as we have seen in Florida in the past.

And the results are very different from a poll about a week ago.

So who knows, but this looks odd to me.

ON EDIT:

I just found registration #'s from 2014.

GOP, less than 4.2 million
DEM, more than 4.6 million
no party, less than 2.8 million

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jul/08/chuck-todd/florida-no-party-voters-are-growing-question-why/

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Highlight:

Poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump neck and neck in Florida [View all] TexasTowelie May 2016 OP

So Clinton is not beating TRUMPF! in either Ohio or Florida. Warren Stupidity May 2016 #1

Between Romney's 2012 results and these UtahJosh May 2016 #2

If Trump wins, we will owe the country and the world an apology. pampango May 2016 #6

Quinnipiac has been off this year...will wait for others... apcalc May 2016 #3

I suspect that this is going to be a weird year Vogon_Glory May 2016 #4

# Respondents by party: 370, GOP; 320, IND; and 306 DEM. So no wonder. nt pnwmom May 2016 #5

Do we know.the rationale? Perhaps that reflects Florida registration? cali May 2016 #9

Sometimes random samples just are off. It's difficult to know how accurate party registration pnwmom May 2016 #10

Those aren't correct. HooptieWagon May 2016 #27

Party registration varies by State. So show me the "correct" Florida figures if you dispute those. pnwmom May 2016 #32

There are more Dems than Repubs here n Florida RockaFowler May 2016 #13

Yes -- I just found some party registration numbers from 2014. pnwmom May 2016 #14

typically responses get a weighting factor to correct demographic anomalies 0rganism May 2016 #23

They didn't weight for party. They did weight for gender, age, etc. pnwmom May 2016 #24

either they're matching a particular turnout model or it's a crap poll 0rganism May 2016 #25

Actually ,it's not unusual to NOT be matching a turnout model. pnwmom May 2016 #29

Repeating it doesn't make it true. HooptieWagon May 2016 #28

Not in Florida it isn't. I linked to the affiliations that Florida reports. Where is your link pnwmom May 2016 #30

Same results that we saw in May 2008 and 2012 from these states Doctor Jack May 2016 #7

Ohio poll is the one to watch. No Republican has ever won without carrying B Calm May 2016 #8

The Rethug super pacs have been running attack ads against Hillary since Jan, but not pnwmom May 2016 #11

Thanks to Hillary supporters attacking Bernie for being a commie socialist it doesn't B Calm May 2016 #16

Hillary has run no commie-ads against Bernie. But the Rethugs would. n/t pnwmom May 2016 #17

What part of the word SUPPORTERS flew over your head? B Calm May 2016 #19

Neck and neck in Pennsylvania is startling. cali May 2016 #12

Its very early. Lets see the trend lines in late summer. apnu May 2016 #20

all this talk of Trump winning the Rust Belt has me SCARED! napkinz May 2016 #22

Too funny! Katashi_itto May 2016 #15

Not surprising. Florida has been a swing state for years. apnu May 2016 #18

I wish it were November ... I don't know if I can stand six months of worrying and waiting for napkinz May 2016 #21

Poll shows Dukakis up by 17 points! Proud Public Servant May 2016 #26

Not shocked runaway hero May 2016 #31