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0rganism

(25,548 posts)

25. either they're matching a particular turnout model or it's a crap poll

Reply to pnwmom (Reply #24)

Wed May 11, 2016, 10:56 AM

May 2016

a turnout model where both R and D turnouts are depressed, and I is through the roof...

if that turnout model is at all plausible, we are in deep dark shit. all hail president Trump.

or the folks in charge of that poll fucked up royally.

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Poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump neck and neck in Florida [View all] TexasTowelie May 2016 OP

So Clinton is not beating TRUMPF! in either Ohio or Florida. Warren Stupidity May 2016 #1

Between Romney's 2012 results and these UtahJosh May 2016 #2

If Trump wins, we will owe the country and the world an apology. pampango May 2016 #6

Quinnipiac has been off this year...will wait for others... apcalc May 2016 #3

I suspect that this is going to be a weird year Vogon_Glory May 2016 #4

# Respondents by party: 370, GOP; 320, IND; and 306 DEM. So no wonder. nt pnwmom May 2016 #5

Do we know.the rationale? Perhaps that reflects Florida registration? cali May 2016 #9

Sometimes random samples just are off. It's difficult to know how accurate party registration pnwmom May 2016 #10

Those aren't correct. HooptieWagon May 2016 #27

Party registration varies by State. So show me the "correct" Florida figures if you dispute those. pnwmom May 2016 #32

There are more Dems than Repubs here n Florida RockaFowler May 2016 #13

Yes -- I just found some party registration numbers from 2014. pnwmom May 2016 #14

typically responses get a weighting factor to correct demographic anomalies 0rganism May 2016 #23

They didn't weight for party. They did weight for gender, age, etc. pnwmom May 2016 #24

either they're matching a particular turnout model or it's a crap poll 0rganism May 2016 #25

Actually ,it's not unusual to NOT be matching a turnout model. pnwmom May 2016 #29

Repeating it doesn't make it true. HooptieWagon May 2016 #28

Not in Florida it isn't. I linked to the affiliations that Florida reports. Where is your link pnwmom May 2016 #30

Same results that we saw in May 2008 and 2012 from these states Doctor Jack May 2016 #7

Ohio poll is the one to watch. No Republican has ever won without carrying B Calm May 2016 #8

The Rethug super pacs have been running attack ads against Hillary since Jan, but not pnwmom May 2016 #11

Thanks to Hillary supporters attacking Bernie for being a commie socialist it doesn't B Calm May 2016 #16

Hillary has run no commie-ads against Bernie. But the Rethugs would. n/t pnwmom May 2016 #17

What part of the word SUPPORTERS flew over your head? B Calm May 2016 #19

Neck and neck in Pennsylvania is startling. cali May 2016 #12

Its very early. Lets see the trend lines in late summer. apnu May 2016 #20

all this talk of Trump winning the Rust Belt has me SCARED! napkinz May 2016 #22

Too funny! Katashi_itto May 2016 #15

Not surprising. Florida has been a swing state for years. apnu May 2016 #18

I wish it were November ... I don't know if I can stand six months of worrying and waiting for napkinz May 2016 #21

Poll shows Dukakis up by 17 points! Proud Public Servant May 2016 #26

Not shocked runaway hero May 2016 #31