Trump vs. Clinton: A Daunting and Ominous Electoral Map (this is from right wing website too) [View all]

[AntiBank]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by NH Ethylene (a host of the General Discussion forum).

http://www.redstate.com/diary/davenj1/2016/05/22/trump-vs.-clinton-may-closer-people-think/

Generally speaking, this writer ignores national presidential polls since we do not elect our President by the popular vote. Instead, one must do a state-by-state analysis to determine electoral votes with 270 being the goal. Many pundits have noted the so-called Blue Wall (ironic- Trump has to climb over that wall)- an advantage that the Democratic Party enjoys in the Electoral count.

If we look at the average margin of victory for the candidate of either party over the past four presidential cycles and exclude the states where the average margin of victory for either party was less than 5% and assign that group of states to the swing category, we find that the Democratic Party holds a 247-196 advantage in the Electoral vote count. They only need 23 electoral votes from a pool of remaining “swing states.” They can get all 23 in one fell swoop by taking Florida and their 29 electoral votes. Even losing Florida leaves them more possible combinations to victory. In short, there is a starting advantage for the Democrats.

Of course, the Republican candidate can upset that balance by taking a traditionally blue state. Some have suggested that Trump’s best path to the White House involves flipping a blue state in the Upper Midwest. Simply flipping Pennsylvania, for example, would still give the Democrats an advantage. The problem with that scenario is that practically every cycle, Republicans believe they can flip Michigan or Wisconsin or especially Pennsylvania, but when the votes are counted, they run into reality.

Obviously, we are still a long way from Election Day and a lot can happen between now and then and likely will happen. An unforeseen economic disaster or (God forbid) a terrorist attack on American soil can seriously alter the race. Further, many states are ignored when it comes to polling in hypothetical match-ups, while other states are over-emphasized. Either way, this cycle has taught us that polls really aren’t worth much- slightly more accurate than the punditry of supposed political experts.

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here is my best guess atm as to the final election numbers (bear in mind FL, CO and OH can ALL flip to trump and Clinton still wins)