OK. I've joined the crew that doesn't think Trump will be the nominee

[karynnj]

115. I think you are right

I also think the Republican establishment is worried, but the nominee of either party really does become the head of the party.

For Trump, everything that happened this year showed the Party leaders, top political strategists and the media pundits - left and right - were all wrong. The fact that a comedian could (and did) write a The Producers parody shows that he has consistently turned conventional wisdom on its head. He touched plenty of third rails -- and was merely more energized the next day. He continued to win the primaries.

What this shows is that Trump is not one to take experts' advise and it is very likely that he pays little attention to polling. That may be why he does not seem to believe his unprecedented unfavorable numbers. (In fact, he likely rationalizes that Clinton's were about 50 too -- though I suspect her negatives will fall with her ads and her convention and her being the only viable sane candidate. I do not see his falling much. In fact, as he fails - they can go higher.)

What seemed to long be the case is that he had a base who liked him that grew to be slightly over 50% of the Republican and Republican leaning independents. This is not unusual for the primaries. (A Republican could say something similar about HRC using 60%) What IS unusual is that the remaining Republicans and Republican leaning independents contain a LARGE segment who say that they will never support him and see him as more unfavorable than favorable. He can not win the general election if he can not unify those who are in the Republican base - and you have party leaders already announcing they will miss the convention!

This is really an unprecedented situation. The ONLY time in the past that a nominee had approval ratings below 30 was with an unpopular sitting President. Neither Jimmy Carter or GHWB could win back enough people. The question might be whether being the President made the negatives firmer by being more entrenched and based on people's demand for change.

Add to that, that he was neither of the party establishment or recruited by the party elders (ie Eisenhower). There is not even a close Democratic equivalent. Even had Sanders won, he would not have been as outside of the political norm - in spite of having been an independent.