Gingrich win almost certainly be the nominee. The calendar simply favors Newt over Romney.

[Bucky]

21. Great resource. But look at the dates of the polls you're citing.

First, look at the galloping rollercoaster of who's in first in Republican polls ==> http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/ppp-paul-romney-battle-for-iowa.php

Now look at the most recent polls in the source you cited. Where the average has Romney at 33%, the only December poll of likely Republican primary voters has Romney all the way down to 22%. In fact, in those polls, you can see a clear downward trend. That is, the more they get to know Mitt, the less they seem to like him.

Now nationally Mitt's on the upswing, but this is the 3rd time he's been in this position. He may turn out to get the nomination by virtue of beating out Ron Paul as the Anti-Anti-Romney candidate. I don't think any of the Anti-Romney candidates' supporters will go to Romney. They may've been scared off of Gingrich for a while, but unlike Cain & Bachmann (and probably unlike Perry) Gingrich has a political record of coming back from the dead. Perry's recent uptick in national polls is always as weak as his next brain fart.