How Much Damage Did the Debate Do to Donald Trump? - The New Yorker [View all]

[ffr]

The reviews are in, and they are virtually unanimous: Donald Trump had a horrible debate on Monday night against Hillary Clinton. He was unprepared, unconvincing, and off-putting.

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It will take until the weekend to know for sure how much damage Trump did to his candidacy on Monday. That’s when a slew of national and battleground-state polls taken after the debate are due to be published. The small amount of data we already have, though, suggests that Clinton can expect to enjoy a significant bounce.The Politico/Morning Consult poll is just one survey, but the numbers are telling.

Nine (9%) per cent of the respondents to the Politico/Morning Consult poll said the debate changed their minds about whom to vote for. Nine per cent of the electorate is a lot. If we assume that two-thirds of these voters switched to Clinton and one-third switched to Trump, which would be in line with the finding that Clinton won the debate by a two-to-one margin among respondents, we could expect the polls to swing in her favor by three (3%) per cent. - The New Yorker

If I'm reading this correctly and if HRC's post debate bump turns out to be only 3%, that 3% if added straight to each state's current average on FiveThirtyEight.com, would mean the following:

Puts out of reach
Pennsylvania +5.7 in favor of HRC
Michigan +6.6
Colorado +4.6
Wisconsin +6.8
Virginia +7.6
Minnesota +7.3
New Hamshire +5.7

Reverses these states into HRC’s column
Florida +2.4
Nevada +2.4
North Carolina +1.8
Ohio +1.2

It would also put in play
Iowa +0
Arizona -1.5 In favor of Donald
Georgia -2.6

We could be talking landslide and picking off congressional seats once again, that's how good Hillary was on Monday night.