Could Cat 5 Hurricane Matthew be the October surprise

[malaise]

55. Florida is now in the cone

Damn

Here's Masters' take on next week

Matthew’s anticipated landfall over Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti on Monday will weaken the storm, due to the high mountains it will interact with. This process may completely disrupt the inner core of Matthew, reducing the storm to Category 1 or 2 strength for several days, as it traverses The Bahamas. The storm may be able to re-intensify to major hurricane status in 2 - 3 days, though, over the exceptionally warm waters surrounding The Bahamas. If the GFS model is correct, Matthew will not punish The Bahamas for multiple days, but will instead march northwards just offshore the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the 00Z Friday run of the UKMET model suggests that the trough of low pressure pulling Matthew to the north will be too weak to continue doing this next week; high pressure will build in on Tuesday, forcing Matthew on a more northwesterly track through the heart of The Bahamas to a point perilously close to South Florida by Thursday. The five members of the European model ensemble that most closely match the operational run over the first 72 hours (Figure 6) have two members that go along with this idea. NHC has put the 5-day cone of uncertainty for Matthew very close to Miami, and it appears likely at this point that South Florida will experience at least the fringes of Matthew, with some heavy rains, if not a direct hit. In addition, the GFS and European ensembles suggest that Matthew could move quite close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina late next week.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3452